Salisbury Preview/ Placepot Picks, 23rd May 2013
Aargh, more banker issues, though with a very thin perm yesterday that was always possible. In truth, I could have gone much longer and still not had the last leg – 20/1 winner, 33/1 second in a novice hurdle, only two places – so we at least kept some powder dry.
Today, we’ll go at the flat card at Salisbury tonight, which has some very interesting runners.
Leg 1: 6.10 – Trappy two-year-old race here, and I’m going deep. Five of the six winners of this race were having their second start, so Finflash, second at Ascot and representing last year’s winning trainer is on A. I’ll add the Hannon hoss, Sacha Park, as that trainer has won three of the last five renewals.
On B, I’m siding with experience, in the shape of Denby Dale, who ought to improve a lot for his first run, and Primitorio from a very good trainer. Saayerr for 2010’s winning trainer goes on B too. Phew.
Obviously, with such a wide coverage, I’m looking for a good result here.
A – 2 (Finflash), 7 (Sacha Park)
B – 1 (Denby Dale), 5 (Primitorio), 6 (Saayerr)
Leg 2: 6.40 – It gets harder, not easier, as we embrace a 13 runner sprint handicap for bad horses. Levi Draper is the obvious starting point, with Richard Hughes legged up for James Fanshawe. But I’m going to swerve him, as his turf form is non-existent and this looks competitive if low class.
Last year’s winner, My Own Way Home, bids to give trainer David Evans a consecutive hat-trick in the race. She needs it like a road, and should get that here. Allied to that is the fact that she’s five pounds lower than when winning last year. Obvious chance.
It’s very hard to fancy the well-backed Glastonberry on the strength of three turf runs – one of them in this race last year. He was in good form then (third on prior start) and yet was still beaten nine lengths. In three turf runs, against forty rivals, he’s managed to beat just five! No chance on any known form. (Will probably bolt up).
Basle is in a good mark, loves conditions and is in form. Obvious chance.
Nubar Boy can go well fresh and has won off a LOT higher than his mark here. Fair chance. I’m taking three against the favourite and the best backed horse in the race!
A – 1 (Nubar Boy), 8 (Basle), 13 (My Own Way Home)
Leg 3: 7.15 – A maiden fillies contest. Deep joy. Plenty of these have had plenty of chances, so my first thought is what could improve enough to win. Jolly, Marjong, has had less goes than many – just two – and she improved from first to second run. That second run was over course and distance on today’s ground, and she was beaten 3/4L with gaps in behind. A material in a weak race.
It’s Taboo has been backed, but she was dropped five pounds by the handicapper for finishing third in a maiden last time, which hardly screams improver!
Azelle drops back in trip and was closest when running over six furlongs in her three attempts. Of the rest, it’s hard to make a case for most. Lady Vermeer and Last Hooray are from respected connections and are probably just not very good: it’ll be handicaps for them, I’d think.
Henry Candy’s Mediska was six lengths behind Marjong here last time, but is entitled to show decent improvement and can get a lot closer today.
A – 2 (Azelle), 9 (Marjong), 10 (Mediska)
Leg 4: 7.45 – Seven runners over a mile and three quarters in a handicap. The pace is with the outsiders, Achalas and Porcini, and the former could make a bold bid for shrewd connections. He makes B here. Spice Fair gets his conditions and goes on A, as does Body Language.
More B’s too, with Porcini and Nordic Quest.
A – 1 (Body Language), 2 (Spice Fair)
B – 3 (Nordic Quest), 5 (Achalas), 6 (Porcini)
Leg 5: 8.20 – Good grief. It gets harder! A three-year-old handicap, with plotters galore in here. The two which really stand out are the top one, Dusky Lark, for connections who do very well when stepping horses up in trip in handicaps; and Rancher, who is by Derby winner, High Chapparal, and goes from seven furlongs to twelve furlongs!!!
Star Of Namibia also steps up in trip and has at least beaten a few horses in three starts to date. They’re my three off the tee.
A – 1 (Dusky Lark), 2 (Star Of Namibia), 9 (Rancher)
Leg 6: 8.50 – Having used a lot of bullets already, I’m short stacked and into banker territory. With this race cutting up, and only two places up for grabs, it looks tricky tricky tricky (as Run DMC might say).
So, banker on Duke Of Perth and the potential to lay it for a place if the pot is shaping up well. My perm tonight is geared towards it paying plenty. If I’m wrong, it’ll be a loser in all likelihood.
A – 3 (Duke Of Perth)
That leaves us with straightforward perms looking like this:
Just A’s – 2 x 3 x 3 x 2 x 3 x 1 = 108 bets
All picks – 5 x 3 x 3 x 5 x 3 x 1 = 675 bets
Ticket builder optimized perm – see below.
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