Stat of the Day, 24th May 2013
The booking of Richard Hughes to ride Levi Draper was pivotal (in my opinion anyway!) yesterday as he delivered a near perfect ride to take the race late on. The horse had run well enough and when switched out left for a final push, took up a great position but didn’t quite look like he was getting there. Cue Mr Hughes with a final drive to the line and a 4/1 winner who actually looked to have a bit more to give.
I’m hoping for back to back success with a win in the….
As I mentioned on Tuesday, horses returning to certain tracks, having won last time out and also having a prior course and distance win to their names tend to do really well. We hit the crossbar with a 2nd place finish from Zarosa at Nottingham on Tuesday, but I hope to go one better with See The Storm today.
Former Yarmouth course and distance winners returning to this course, having won (anywhere) last time around have won 21 of 64 races since the start of 2010: a strike rate of 32.8% generating level stakes profits of 27.84pts (+43.5% ROI) at SP and 34.81pts (+54.4% ROI). If we exclude runners priced over 8/1 (as we’re not likely to get 8/1 winners on SotD), the numbers improve to 21 winners from 56 (37.5%) for 35.84pts (+64% ROI) and 42.81pts (+76.45%) respectively.
All of which brings us to one sole qualifier today in See The Storm. This horse has been a revelation since switching to Ian Williams’ yard, not finishing outside the first two home in all eight starts since the move (22121221) and still looks like he’s improving with every run. He won at Newmarket last Friday over today’s trip and runs off the same mark of 61 today, so providing today’s race isn’t a touch too soon, he should be on the premises once more.
The horse has no issues with the cut in the ground having won over 6f on heavy and a second over 7f on heavy, but also acts equally well on the A/W and good ground. Meanwhile, trainer Ian Williams is no stranger to the winners’ enclosure here at Yarmouth, he saddled up four winners from just eight entries here last season.
I’m not always keen on backing favourites, but our selection will be the favorite today, so we’ll not be getting rich off the back of him, but I really think it’s his race to win (or lose!), hence it’s a 1pt win bet on See The Storm at 9/4 BOG. The price is quite widely available, but I’m reinvesting some of yesterday’s Bet365 winnings. To quickly see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…
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