Stat of the Day, 27th May 2013

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 27th May 2013

A no-show from Jaja De Jau yesterday, who trailed home 7th of 10 runners and the best part of 20 lengths behind the winner. She looked very one-paced and seemed to struggle late on. Perhaps she might need to drop back in trip, but what do I know?

I’ve got a glaringly obviously stat for you today and one, maybe two not so apparent relating to the….

2.30 Cartmel:

Every SotD piece I write starts from a fairly obvious/well-known piece of information and here’s today’s: Tony McCoy rides lots of winners! That alone might not quite be enough to base a Stat of the Day pick on: I think I’d be laughed out of a job. He does win lots of races, but backing him blindly generally costs you around 14% of your stakes and 16.5% when betting within the general 5/2 to 6/1 range that SotD operates in, so we need a further angle or two

You might not be as aware that Cartmel is one of his more fruitful places of work with a career strike rate of almost 29% (13 winners from 45) and a near 40% ROI at Betfair SP (which is closer to our BOG prices than SP is). He didn’t race here last year, but in the 2010/11 seasons, his record here was 142211111123, that’s seven wins from twelve (58.33%) with three placed finishes and only one result outside the first three home! This generated 16.1pts at betfair SP: a return of some 134% above stakes and makes any ride he has here of interest.

Finally, since Mr McCoy is a jockey who is always in demand, trainer Gary Brown has only managed to get him on board sixteen times in his entire training career, but generally to good effect. When Tony has ridden for Gary in the past , he has won five of those sixteen races, with thirteen of those priced in our odds range, producing four winners (30.8%) and an ROI of 32.5% at betfair SP.

All of which brings us to Rosslyn Castle, who was a useful performer on the flat for Roger Charlton last season, winning 2 from 6 at distances of up to 1m5f, before switching to hurdling for Mr Brown. He wasn’t disgraced on his debut, despite finishing back in 8th place having run quite keenly/greenly early on and perhaps exerted too much energy in doing so, not leaving enough in reserve for a later challenge. It is widely expected that he’ll come on greatly for that run and if Tony McCoy can’t get a tune out of him, I’m not sure who can.

Rosslyn Castle will here fit and fresh and with the benefit of having had a pipe opener on the flat over 1m6f three weeks ago at Salisbury.

I think there’s enough there to justify a 1pt win bet on Rosslyn Castle at 4/1 BOG with Stan James, but to see what on offer elsewhere, please…

Click here for the latest betting on the 2.30 Cartmel.

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