Stat of the Day, 28th May 2013
Not the best of starts to a new week, as Rosslyn Castle only trailed home 3rd of the 4 runners. He had run pretty well until being headed before the last hurdle, but that then seemed a cue for him to crumble. He faded quite badly and quite quickly from that point, whereby he finished a good 22 lengths behind the winner!
More jumps fayre for you today and another big name in the….
Following on from yesterday’s shock news that Tony McCoy rides lots of winners, here’s another piece of information that’s hardly ground-breaking news: Nicky Henderson trains lots of winners!
Yes, of course he does, Chris: everyone knows that. Most people also know that if you back him blindly, you’ll lose money. Since 2010, backing all of Nicky’s runners would have seen you lose some 9.2% of your stakes, despite a 24.4% strike rate. In hurdle contests such as today’s the strike rate is slightly lower (23.6%), but so are the losses at just -4.65%.
However, if you backed Nicky’s hurdlers here at Newton Abbot in that timeframe, you’d have been looking at eight winners from just nineteen runners: a 42.11% strike rate giving level stakes profits of 9.3pts at Betfair SP, a return of 48.95% and the record with horses 6/1 or under, where we concentrate most of our SotD picks, that record is 8/14 for +14.3pts.
This brings us to Nicky’s sole hurdler at Newton Abbot today: Looking Hopeful. He’s not one of Nicky’s top players, but performed well enough in bumpers and then ran a very creditable second in a novice hurdle at Plumpton. He wasn’t as good at Southwell recently, finishing 3rd almost three weeks, but he was coming back from a 4 month break and may well have needed the run and wasn’t knocked about too much that day. Despite not having won a race, he has been placed in five of his seven starts, so he’s knocking on the door and it looks like his yard have targeted this maiden event as a starting point. It does look weaker than the other races he’s run in.
I think there’s enough there to justify a 1pt win bet on Looking Hopeful at 4/1 BOG with BoyleSports, but to see what on offer elsewhere, please…
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