Good grief, Lawks amercy, yikes and crikey! We doubled up on the placepot yesterday, with the big perm and the ticket builder version both netting £115 and a few pence for a fair-sized £40-odd investment. Not stellar, but given that five favourites were placed, it was good to get a profit at all.
To today, and I’m off to Lingfield to see Vastly – in which I own a share – run in the 5.55 on the all weather. So let’s have a crack at the placepot there today. The first five races are all on the sodden turf, and the last few, including placepot leg six, are on the all weather.
But, before that, news of another free trial offer, and this one looks a belter.
It’s a ratings service, which has been finding some stupid priced winners lately, and is run by a guy I know well, called Keith Eckstein.
Keith’s a bit of a data-crunching nutter, and lives out in the wilds of France, chomping on baguettes and eating onion soup (insert your own racial stereotype here to complete the image!)
And this ex-pat has honed his ratings to be extremely effective. Below is a list of the best winners from last week:
Sun 19th Lim 3.25 Slivegullion Girl WON 9/1 SP
Mon 20th Lei 8.20 Apricot Sky WON 10/1 SP
Tue 21st Bri 2.10 Lincoln Rose WON 16/1 SP
Nwc 2.30 Ichimoku WON 10/1 SP
Tow 6.05 Crack At Dawn WON 10/1 SP
Wed 22nd Lin 3.30 Honourable Knight WON 12/1 SP
Hun 4.40 Wom WON 9/1 SP
Sli 8.10 I Never Knew That WON 14/1 SP
Thu 23rd Goo 4.55 Night Trade WON 10/1 SP
Fri 24th Hay 5.15 Tapis Libre WON 12/1 SP
Sat 25th Ctm 6.25 The Good Guy WON 16/1 SP
Irish 2000 Guineas – first 3 home in correct order, tri-cast paid
Anyway, like I say, it’s a completely free no credit card required free trial, which runs from today through to next Thursday, and you can get it here.
Now, to today’s placepot hat-trick bid, and a couple I quite fancy too.
Leg 1: 2.20 – We kick off with a 3yo mile and a half handicap, where most of the field are stepping up in trip and looking to improve as a consequence. Four non-runners leaves ten. Only a couple of these have run beyond a mile and a quarter and a number are stepping up markedly in trip.
Of those to race over a fairly commensurate distance, Whitefall offers most hope of replicating her fourth of fourteen last time (ninth home, Rancher, won the seller here on Tuesday). She’ll go on A.
Looking at the projected improvers, I’m immediately drawn to Vandross and Helamis. The former, which has been well backed, has run reasonably on soft and heavy turf around a mile, and this first run in a handicap and big step up in trip should eke plenty of improvement. The latter is a filly by Shirocco, a fantastic mud-loving middle distance performer himself. She’s stepping up from seven furlongs to twelve here, and there’s plenty of stamina in the pedigree to imply that she can show more today.
Favourite, Al Zein, is by Notnowcato, himself by Inchinor, and both have thrown more soft ground horses than faster turf nags. He’s another distance stepper-upper (or maybe up-stepper) and might get better for that and the mud. A
A – 2 (Vandross), 6 (Al Zein), 10 (Helamis), 13 (Whitefall)
Leg 2: 2.50 – Mr Lando, an impeccably-bred German middle distance type (by Shirocco out of a Lando mare), should devour this ground and distance and, as a heavy ground hurdle winner, we have no reservations on the basis of turf or trip. The track will be no problem either, as he won over this strip last week. He has a strong man on board in Jimmy Quinn, and I reckon he’s place banker material.
The rest are much of a muchness and it would be surprising – to me at least – if three of them were able to beat the German here.
A – 5 (Mr Lando)
Leg 3: 3.20 – A nine furlong handicap for three-year-olds, with eleven left in after three early non-runners. Again, we’re looking for distance/ground improvers. The favourite, Topamichi, looks solid. He’s got form on soft surfaces and over this trip. The only negative is his lesser scope for improvement against some of these. That said, he may already be at a level that many of his rivals will never attain!
The second favourite, Ebony Roc, comes from a hot stable, but his own form of 000 – beating just seven of 38 rivals – is uninspiring. But, with that trio of ‘duck eggs’ in the form, he’s a placepot sort all right, and I’ll lob him hopefully onto B.
Sonnetation is another first time in a handicap and he’s bred for a trip (by Dylan Thomas out of a Kingmambo mare). The money is normally well placed when it’s from Jim Boyle connections, and this shrewd team goes on B too.
Entrapping has scope to improve with time, but I’m not that keen on horses claimed from Richard Hannon’s yard, as they normally squeeze all talent out of their inmates. Nevertheless, I’ll take a punt on B.
And finally, Brynford is another bred for this, and his dad, Sir Percy, has sired a lot of soft ground winners over this sort of trip. Sneaks onto A.
A – 1 (Topamichi), 6 (Brynford)
B – 3 (Entrapping), 12 (Ebony Roc)
Leg 4: 3.50 – Maiden fillies over ten furlongs, and there’s the ‘dead eight’ currently. That means a further non-runner leaves us with two places. We have an odds on jolly, in Butterfly McQueen, part-owned by Sir Alex Ferguson. She has form on soft, but I’d not be brave enough to bank on her. Maiden fillies are a very dodgy punting proposition, especially when they’ve had a few goes.
First timer Astorgs Galaxy, and interesting soft ground debutant, Huffoof, will go on B to shore things up.
A – 3 (Butterfly McQueen)
B – 2 (Astorgs Galaxy), 4 (Huffoof)
Leg 5: 4.20 – More maiden fillies. Deep joy. And this division is already down to seven runners, and has an unraced Sir Henry lass at the top of the market. His runners rarely need their first start, and she’s out of a family of winners galore. I’m tempted to make her an A banker, but I’ll err on the side of caution, and add Bantam in with her. This lass will come on plenty for her first run – a respectable ten length fifth at Newbury on fast ground – and might prefer this juicier green.
A – 2 (Bantam), 7 (Phaenomena)
Leg 6: 4.50 – All of the above projecting, suspecting, and generally guessing leads us to leg six, an all weather six furlong maiden for juveniles. Good lord. Whose idea was this?! Richard Hannon runs two, and the unraced early foal, Oxlip, looks more likely than stablemate, Jive.
Rose Gloria looks a dodgy favourite to me, with her first run being better than her second, and that on soft ground over five. This is all weather over six. Not for me.
Pound Piece looks a good bit more robust to me, and is readily added to A.
In fact, I don’t really like anything against her, and I think she’s a fair bet in the race too.
A – 2 (Pound Piece)
Just A’s – 4 x 1 x 2 x 1 x 2 x 1 = 16 bets
All picks – 4 x 1 x 4 x 3 x 2 x 1 = 96 bets
Ticket builder optimized perm – see below.
Readers can use the ticket builder at www.geegeez.co.uk/ppot/ to create their own part perms.
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