Sat TV Trends: 1st June 2013

It’s Derby Day On The Downs!

It’s Derby Day! Andy Newton’s got all the Epsom LIVE C4 races covered from a trends and stats angle……

EPSOM (C4/RUK)

1.35 – Investec Out of The Ordinary Handicap Cl2 1m2f18y CH4

11/11 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
10/11 – Never run at Epsom before
10/11 – Had won over 1m before (4 over 1m2f)
9/11 – Placed last time out
8/11 – Favourites that were placed
8/11 – Winners from stall 6 or higher
8/11 – Carried 8-10 or more
8/11 – Returned 11/2 or shorter in the betting
6/11 – Horses placed from stall 1
4/11 – Won their previous race
3/11 – Winners from stall 1
3/11 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 6.2/1
Stall 2 has just one place to it’s name in the last 11 runnings

Trainer/Jockey Stats:
John Gosden is only 2 from 25 with this 3 year-olds at the track
William Haggas is only 1 from 16 with his 3 year-olds at the track
Jim Crowley has a 21% record when riding 3 year-olds at Epsom
Ryan Moore has a 19% record when riding 3 year-olds at Epsom
William Buick is 0 from 20 riding 3 year-olds at the track

Stats correct as 30^th May 2013

2.05 – Investec Woodcote Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 6f CH4

11/11 – Ran within the last month
10/11 – Had won over either 5 or 6f before
9/11 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
10/11 – Finished 1^st or 2^nd last time out
9/11 – Yet to win over 6f
8/11 – Had 2 or more previous runs
8/11 – Winners from stall 5 or lower
8/11 – Single-figured stalls that filled the first three home
5/11 – Won their previous race
4/11 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
3/11 – Trained by Mark Johnston (2002, 2003, 2011)
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 6/1

Trainer/Jockey Stats:
Richard Fahey is 2 from 5 (40%) with his 2 year-olds here
Richard Hannon has a 24% record with his 2 year-olds here
Jim Crowley has a 38% record riding 2 year-olds here

Stats correct as 30^th May 2013

2.40 – Investec Coronation Cup (Group 1) Cl1 1m4f10y CH4

St Nicholas Abbey won the race 12 months ago
11/11 – Aged 6 or younger
11/11 – Had previously won a Group 1 or 2 race
10/11 – Had won over 1m4f before
10/11 – Finished in the top three last time out
9/11 – Ran at either Chester, York, Newmarket or the Curragh last time out
9/11 – Raced within the last month
9/11 – Aged either 4 or 5 years-old
7/11 – Horses from stall 3 that were placed (only one won though)
7/11 – Favourites placed
6/11 – Won by Aidan O’Brien (2005, 2007, 2008, 2010, 2011)
4/11 – Won their last race
3/11 – Winning favourites
3/11 – Had run at Epsom before
2/11 – Ridden by Ryan Moore (2009, 2011)
1/11 – Winner from stall 1
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 7/2
ST NICHOLAS ABBEY has won the last 2 renewals

Trainer/Jockey Stats:
Aidan O’Brien has a 50% record with his older horses at the track
Ryan Moore has a 20% record when riding older horses at the course

Stats correct as 30^th May 2013

3.15 – Investec Specialist Bank “Dash” (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 5f CH4

11/11 – Failed to win their previous race
10/11 – Had run within the last 6 weeks (9 within the last month)
9/11 – Won from stall 8 or higher
9/11 – Favourites unplaced
8/11 – Aged between 5 and 8 years-old (inc)
8/11 – Had run at Epsom before (only 1 had won though)
8/11 – Carried 9-1 or less
7/11 – Returned a double-figure price
4/11 – Trained by Dandy Nicholls (2002, 2003, 2005, 2009)
1/11 – The horse from stall 1 has only hit the frame once
0/11 – Winning favourites
Stone Of Folca won the race in 2013
Captain Dunne won the race in 2012
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 17/1
Of the 30 top 3 places up for grabs in the last 11 years horses from stalls 8 or higher have filled 27

Trainer/Jockey Stats:
Brian Meehan is 2 from 5 with his older horses here
David Nicholls has just a 5% (3 from 64) record with his older horses here
Ron Harris is 0 from 16 with his older horses here
Ryan Moore has a 20% record when riding older horses here
Steve Drowne is 3 from 9 with his older horses here

4.00 – Investec Derby (Group 1) (Entire Colts & Fillies) Cl1 1m4f10y CH4

11/11 – Raced within the last month
11/11 – Placed 1st or 2nd in their last race
11/11 – Priced 6/1 or shorter in the market
10/11 – Had won a Group race previously
9/11 – Won from a single-figure draw
8/11 – Placed favourites
8/11 – Won their last race
7/11 – Had run over 1m2f previously
7/11 – Had won a Group One previously
4/11 – Favourite winners
4/11 – Irish-trained winners
3/11 – Won the Dante Stakes last time out
1/11 – Winners from draw 12 or higher
0/11 – Raced at the course previously
0/11 – Won over 1m4f previously
9 Dante winners went onto win the Derby
Only 1 horse that was beaten in the Dante (Workforce) went onto win the Derby

Epsom Derby Trainer/Jockey Stats
Sir Michael Stoute won the race in 2010, 2004, 2003, 1986 & 1981
Aidan O’Brien won the race in 2002, 2001, 2012
Kieren Fallon rode the winner in 2004, 2003 & 1999
Johnny Murtagh rode the winner in 2005, 2002 & 2000

Follow Andy Newton Here – @NewtsDailyLays