It’s an early summer Monday, so it must be Windsor races this evening. Below are my thoughts on the card, as well as my placepot perm.
Leg 1: 5.30 – Just four runners still engaged in this juvenile intermediate race. Three of them are last time out winners, but the one to catch my eye is the Salisbury maiden victor, Saayerr, who was very impressive in a decent race. In what could be a suicidal move, he’s a banker for me here, in a race which is win only for placepot purposes.
A – 2 (Saayerr)
Leg 2: 6.00 – A wide open maiden race, with plenty capable of stepping up on what they’ve shown so far. Glanely runs in the Society Rock colours, and represents that horse’s trainer, James Fanshawe. Fanshawe’s record with second time out nags is not fantastic, and I’m going to take chances elsewhere.
Noble Deed and Realize are the next two in the betting and, in fact, one of them may usurp Glanely for favouritism by off time. The former has had three runs as a two-year-old, the best of which was his only effort on turf. Willie Haggas’ string are in good form, and this fellow should be thereabouts. Hughie Morrison’s Realize has run twice without showing much improvement from first to second start.
Aglaophonos runs for Roger Varian and is co-owned by Sir Alex Ferguson. That won’t make him run any faster of course, but he is entitled to run well on the basis of his most recent second to Smokethatthunders at Wolverhampton.
Jeremy Noseda’s Hornboy caught my eye, with Ryan Moore booked to ride. Second on his last two starts, he’s sure to win a race soon, and it might be today in a compact affair.
A – 7 (Noble Deed)
B – 2 (Aglaophonos), 5 (Hornboy)
Leg 3: 6.30 – Aussie Reigns dead heated with Freeport here last week, and I was there to watch that. Aussie was unlucky not to win outright, as he didn’t get a run until quite late and was eating up the ground in the last fifty yards. With a trouble free passage tonight, he can go one better under a six pound penalty. The 5/1 early has all gone and he’s a general 7/2 now. If he goes out to around 9/2, I’ll be backing him.
Bold And Free is interesting on his handicap debut for shrewd connections. It is also his first start at a mile and his first on fast turf, for which he should be well suited.
Harry Bosch has run to a consistent level of form, including here last time, and he might also threaten the places. And Breccbennach will strip fitter than when a close up third on his season reappearance.
A – 1 (Aussie Reigns), 11 (Bold And Free)
B – 2 (Breccbennach), 7 (Harry Bosch)
Leg 4: 7.00 – A nice little Listed race, this revolves around last year’s progressive filly, Mince, who was well beaten first time out this term at York. Given that nine of the last ten winners were priced at 7/2 or shorter, it’s a good race for fancied runners.
Mince is better than she showed the last day, and can prove it here.
A – 1 (Mince)
Leg 5: 7.30 – Tropics was mightily impressive last week over course and distance when blitzing his rivals, and he’s likely to make another bold bid, despite this being a step up in class. He’s my sole A selection, but I’ll add some B ballast in case he fails to replicate that level of form.
Hugo Palmer’s Khubala is progressive and this is easier than the very good six furlong handicap he contested at Newbury last time, where he ran with credit. Poole Harbour and Tioman Legend also ought to run well.
A – 9 (Tropics)
B – 2 (Poole Harbour), 4 (Khubala), 5 (Tioman Legend)
Leg 6: 8.00 – A fifteen runner maiden with an odds on favourite, in the shape of Sir Henry Cecil’s Court Pastoral. There’s been very little in market opposition as I write so I’m going to bank on him and, if still going in the placepot, lay him for a place to cover my stakes. That way, if he places, I have a share of the placepot, and if he doesn’t I get my cash back from a successful place lay bet.
A – 10 (Court Pastoral)
That leaves us looking like this:
Just A’s – 1 x 1 x 2 x 1 x 1 x 1 = 8 bets
All picks – 1 x 3 x 4 x 1 x 4 x 1 = 48 bets
Ticket builder optimized perm – see below.
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