Daily Dabble, 5th June 2013
Grrrrr! Is it wrong to be slightly peeved at getting a 12/1 winner? Yes, it probably is, but yesterday perfectly summed up some of the frustrations we’ve faced doing the Daily Dabble of late. We ‘ve been finding winners here and there and the odd place double, but the big win double has, so far, eluded us. I was convinced that red Tyke would do the business for us yesterday, but he was withdrawn and I’ve made a note to get on him next time out.
This left us with our more speculative punt Black Truffle, a 10/1 shot that nobody seemed to like as he was sent off at 12/1 and was then subjected to a near perfect ride by George Baker, who delivered him at just the right moment to beat Ryan Moore to the line by a neck. Like I say, I really shouldn’t grumble at a 15pts profit on the day, should I?
I’m hoping to get both horses running today, though, starting in the…
Where I’m expecting Miako to finish in the first two home today at decent odds of 6/1. He has won over C&D earlier this year and the application of a visor is expected to help keep him straight. Three year old USA bred horses priced at 8/1 or under have a 28% win strike rate and a 49% place strike rate here at Southwell since the start of 2011 and Miako’s sire is Speightstown whose sprinters have a record here of 1211123321 from ten outings producing win profits of 20pts and E/W returns of just over 24pts.
Carazam isn’t an obvious choice, but at 7/1, represents decent value in a race that doesn’t look that strong. He won over today’s trip back in March on his debut for his new yard and has also won again since. His last two runs have been below par and it is anticipated he’ll fare better back at the one-mile distance, where he has looked strongest. He wasn’t actually disgraced last time out, despite the bare result of 6th of 10 not looking great. He was only 4 lengths behind the winner Dandy, who won again yesterday and he was just 2 lengths outside the places in that Class 4 event, today is a Class 5 contest.
The double pays 55/1 today and the place part is priced at 5/1, both with Stan James (BOG, of course!).
Back Miako and Carazam in an each way double with Stan James, the win part paying 55/1 (Best Odds Guaranteed)