Daily Dabble, 6th June 2013
I hold my hands up from yesterday: two terrible choices / runs (delete as applicable!), as firstly Miako drifted like a barge out from our advised 6/1 to an SP of 11/1 and soon showed why. He never got involved at all and was a good way back finishing 4th of 5. This meant the later race was a dead rubber and probably just as well. Carazam went in the opposite direction to Miako and was well backed all the way from 7/1 into 3’s at the off, where he became favourite. Unfortunately, he didn’t seem to quite stay the full mile and despite only being a couple of lengths outside the places, actually finished back in 6th.
We’re looking for much better today as we tackle a cross-codes, across-the-sea Celtic double, starting with the…
I’m siding with an ultra consistent 11 yr old veteran here in the shape of Patsy Finnegan. He has made the frame 12 times in 25 contests, which is a good starting point for an E/W bet, but it is his form since switching to chasing that catches the eye. He admittedly hasn’t won many (just 1/12), but when he completes a race, he’s invariably involved in the money, as a chase form line of 2224FP323231 shows. He won last time out at Uttoxeter and is expected to go well again today despite a 6lb penalty, making the current 15/2 odds look attractive
This race is already being seen as a public training session for hot favourite Fountain of Youth from the all-conquering Ballydoyle outfit. However, when you’ve a horse as short as 1/8, it leaves the door open for a decent priced bet on a rival to take 2nd place or even upset the apple cart. This looks ike a two-horse race at best and as such, I can’t see Ain’t No Surprise failing to get at least second today. She ran well enough without winning on debut and followed that up by running in Listed class last time out. Despite finishing 6th of 6, she was by no means disgraced and is sure to win races soon. Hopefully today will be that day at a decent price of 6/1.
The double pays 117/2 today and the place part is priced at 21/4 (5.25/1), both with William Hill (BOG, of course!).
Back Patsy Finnegan and Ain’t No Surprise in an each way double with William Hill, the win part paying 58.5/1 (Best Odds Guaranteed)