Stat of the Day, 6th June 2013
We got June back on an even keel last night with a very well timed run to the front by General Brook. We’d got on at 4/1 in the morning at odds I considered just about fair, but he was well fancied and went off as short as 2/1. As I’d hoped, he was kept closer to the action than previously and he was placed in a good position to strike and he managed to get home by just a neck, taking the lead in the final strides.
We’re very aware here at SotD, how fine the margins can be in racing and they went our way yesterday. Back to the UK today and the sunny South Coast for a Class 6 Handicap on Good to Firm ground, where nine runners will tackle ten furlongs in the…
It’s all about Luca Cumani today, he has two runners out this afternoon, both at Brighton and I expect both to win. Bartack goes first in the 3.05 race and should be good enough to take that one, but at 11/8 in a maiden event, he seems a little too short for our purposes here. This, by default, means we wait another 70 minutes for the seasonal reappearance of Spieta.
Mr Cumani doesn’t actually send many runners to Brighton, despite a good success rate here. In fact, he has sent just 26 runners here since the start of 2008, but a strike rate of over 23% courtesy of six winners is enough to provoke interest, as is, of course, the 9.76pts (+37.5% ROI) profit at betfair SP, but those stats alone don’t quite cut it for SotD: we need/want more!
Spieta makes her handicap debut today and the Cumani yard is very good at finding a handicap race for debutants to win first time out. Since the turn of 2010, they have had 51 handicap debutants sent off at prices of under 8/1, returning some sixteen (31.4%) winners for profits of 24.6pts (+79.4% ROI). There may be some concern out there about the fact that Spieta has been off the track for over 7 months now (224 days to be precise!), but I wouldn’t let that deter you as Luca’s horse do tend to run well after a break.
In the last two and a half years, the yard has had 69 runners come back from a break of 6 to 10 months, of which twenty (29%) have gone on to win on their reappearance. Of those 69 runners, twenty-five were priced at 9/2 or under (where I expect Spieta to be today) producing seventeen (68%) winners for 44.2pts (+177% ROI) profit and of those, a dozen had run in handicap races on no more than two occasions in the past, yielding 11 winners for 28pts profit.
So, there are plenty of stats to support the pick, but what of the horse herself? Well, after just three modest performances in maidens, there’s not a great deal to tell, but her breeding tends to suggest that today’s step up in trip will be to her liking and she looked to have plenty of promise when 5th at Doncaster in what looks a tougher race than today’s. The 2nd, 3rd and 4th horses that day have all gone on to win since that race, whilst the winner has moved up three classes to Class 2 company. So, if the form continues to hold out, we should be set fair this afternoon. In fact, even the horse behind her in 6th has gone on to win subsequently, so that’s proving to be a decent maiden.
I’d expect London Bridge to be the favourite and her main rival today and the presence of that one means we get a decent price for our selection. The play, therefore, is a 1pt win bet on Spieta at 7/2 BOG. This price is pretty much available everywhere with the odd exception and I’m on with Stan James this morning, but for your preferred bookie, please…
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