Daily Dabble, 7th June 2013
Hmmm, yesterday was a head scratcher, but not entirely a major shock. I said Patsy Finnegan gets placed when completing a race as 10 places and 2 non-completions from 12 runs demonstrates. Unfortunately that record is now 10 and 3, after he unseated his jockey at the 11th fence. Then, an hour later Ain’t No Surprise threw away the chance of a place at 13/2 when he looked set fair for a comfortable second place, but seemed to ease off when it really mattered..
Two decent flat prospects today for you, starting with the…
Top Offer has been off the track for over a year now after a brief 3-race campaign to date. He comfortably won a Class 4 maiden at Newbury in his only start as a 2 yr old and was then pitched into last year’s 2000 Guineas and followed that up with a run in a Listed event at Sandown. He hasn’t been seen since and at odds of up to 11/2 could well be very leniently treated off a mark of just 95. Trained by Roger Charlton who has an excellent record in recent years with horses dropping down in class: 21 winners and 19 further places from 82 races, producing 71pts profit for win bets and 65pts for E/W punters.
Saeed Bin Suroor has a 41% strike rate here at Bath and runs handicap debutant Waverunner here. The selection is the one most likely to give the warm favourite a run for her money. The yard has a 41% win record with handicap debutants below 8/1 in the last 5 seasons giving profits of some 52.3pts whilst E/W punters have been fortunate enough to get a 60% strike rate from those horses. The presence of an even money favourite means we can enjoy odd of around 11/2 today.
The double pays 165/4 (41.25/1) today and the place part is priced at a shade under 4/1 (3.99/1 to be precise!), both with Stan James (BOG, of course!).
Back Top Offer and Waverunner in an each way double with Stan James, the win part paying just over 41/1 (Best Odds Guaranteed)