Daily Dabble, 11th June 2013
One out of two for Matt yesterday, as Midnight Macarena (backed from 15/2 to 4/1!) just about held on to third place by a nose after seemingly running out of steam in the closing stages. This meant, however, that we’d chances of a place double and the market seemed to agree with us regarding Tamarillo Grove. This looked a little speculative early on, as the market opened at 14/1, but the horse attracted a fair bit of support before going off as 10/1. Unfortunately, a number of jumping errors took its toll on our selection and he weakened late on to finish 5th.
Matt’s on his way to Dorset as I write this (he’s taking a trip to Bill Turner’s yard today), so I’ve resumed proceedings for today at least and we’re going back to the flat (one turf, one A/W) and we start with the…
The presence of a very short favourite means there’s some value looking elsewhere in this maiden contest. I’d expect Meddling to improve considerably from having already had a run at Nottingham a month ago, where Silvestre de Sousa guided her to 6th place (beaten by just over 7l and around 5l from the places) without troubling her too much. Sir Michael Stoute’s horses generally do much better second time out than on debut (24% strike rate on 2nd runs, who lost on debut) and the booking of Ryan Moore is of particular interest. Ryan’s in great form, having ridden 17 winners in the last fortnight alone and if anyone can get the best tune out of this one, today, Ryan’s the one and the odds of 7/1 look quite appealing this afternoon.
Patrick Chaming’s horses have fared very well on the Lingfield polytrack of late, securing nine winners from thirty rides over the last 18 months here. This has produced respectable returns of 6.75pts (+22.5% ROI) and Patrick runs Eager To Bow this evening. This horse has won seven times over today’s trip, including a C&D win here, whilst his A/W record reads 4 wins and 6 places from 15 attempts. Returns from a 201 day break today since winning last time out at Kempton and only carries an extra 2lb for that win. The break shouldn’t be an issue, as he won on his summer reappearance last year after 6 months off the track. At 15/2 this morning, he looks a solid E/W prospect.
The double pays 67/1 today and the place part is priced at 5/1, both with BetVictor (BOG, of course!).
Back Meddling and Eager To Bow in an each way double with BetVictor, the win part paying 119/1 (Best Odds Guaranteed)