Stat of the Day, 11th June 2013

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 11th June 2013

Apache Dawn continued his consistent run of places yesterday, but unfortunately found one too good for him on the day. Once he was headed 2 out, it was pretty much game over, but both rider and horse stuck gamely to the task finish second. No return for us, though.

Matt’s down in Dorset today spending some time at Bill Turner’s yard, so I’ve jumped back in the chair and I’m going to take you back a fortnight for a bit of deja vu with a horse running in the….

3.30 Salisbury:

Back on the 29th of May, I put Iffraaj Pink up as my selection for SotD, but it was withdrawn fairly late that morning and I made a mental note to see where/when she turned out next and now here she is a fortnight later at Salisbury.

The first thing that drew me to here last time around was the recent record of Roger Varian’s horses making their handicap debut. 13 of his 65 handicap debutants priced below 12/1 in the last two and a half years have gone on to win at the first attempt. This very useful 20% strike rate has also given rise to a more than handy 16.55% ROI.

Of the 65 horses mentioned above, four of them made their handicap bow here at Salisbury: two won and one was placed and the trainer has a more than respectable record here at this course, albeit from fairly small sample sizes. He has a 25% strike rate here (5 winners from 20) and a 1 in 3 record in handicaps via 3 wins from 9 and 5.83pts (+64.78% ROI) profit.

And so onto the progressive-looking Iffraaj Pink, who was beaten by just a head at Haydock a month ago by Valtina who has since competed in two listed events. Our selection then stepped up to take a maiden over course and distance here last time out whilst staying on strongly and looking like she’d plenty left in reserve. She’s a half-sister to the classy Vale of York and seems to have been allocated a very fair mark of 82 for her handicap debut and I’d expect her to be on the premises this afternoon.

The presence of a fairly warm favourite means we’re getting better odds that last time and I’ll be having a 1pt win bet on Iffraaj Pink at 4/1 BOG. I’ve used Paddy Power today, but that price is quite widely available elsewhere, so be sure to…

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