Stat of the Day, 12th June 2013

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 12th June 2013

Not the best display from Iffraaj Pink yesterday, as she tracked the leaders before having to be ridden two furlongs from home. Once it came to the business end of things, she had nothing extra to give and stayed on one-paced to finish back in 4th place as the quite heavily backed 2/1 favourite. We did, however, beat the market by backing her at 4/1 and if we can continue to back horses at twice their SP, we will be profitable.

But that was yesterday and I’ve dusted myself off for today’s selection who runs in the….

7.20 Hamilton

I actually selected Red Tyke for the Daily Dabble eight days ago, but he was withdrawn that day and he reappears for his seasonal debut here today. He’s now been off the course for the best part of three months (82 days to be precise), but that doesn’t concern me too much. Trainer John Quinn has a good record at getting horses to go well on their first outing after a break. Since the start of 2011, he has brought 119 horses back to the track after a break of two to eight months, of which 21 (17.65%) have gone on to win, producing level stakes profits of 23.04pts (+19.36% ROI).

The two to three-month rest, as enjoyed by today’s selection, seems to be the optimum time off the track, as in the same timeframe, the yard’s record reads eleven winners (23.91%) from forty-six attempts for profits of 15.93pts: a healthy 34.63% return on your stakes.

Today represents just the thirteenth entry at Hamilton for John Quinn in the last two years, but his record here is very impressive at 451320041141, a 1 in 3 strike rate producing 4.74pts (+39.5% ROI) and an excellent 50% place strike rate. And if we discarded runners priced 9/2 or above, we end up with a sequence that reads: 41320111. The first of that cluster of three wins was achieved by today’s selection Red Tyke over course and distance on what has been his only visit here to date.

He’s a hardy durable sort and has won four of nine races in the last twelve months, whilst making the places on a further two occasions. The ground is admittedly a little faster than he’d like and this will be reflected in the early BOG price we take, but the track has been watered and heavy rain is forecast, which should play into his hands. Any softening of the ground should his price cut as the day progresses and this means that there should be some value in the 4/1 BOG on offer from BetVictor. It’s win only for me, of course and as always, I heartily recommend that you…

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