Stat of the Day, 15th June 2013
Jupiter Fidius was slow to get into his stride yesterday and spent the rest of the race chasing the field to no avail, as he only managed to beat one of his eight rivals home, finishing back in 8th place at 7/2 (we took 4/1), a good sixteen lengths away from the eventual winner.
Back to England for a lowly Median Auction Maiden contest on Good to Firm ground. Just six runners are expected to take to the stalls before tackling the seven furlong trip in the….
First things first, this is a terrible race, but every race has a winner!
Jeremy Noseda is one of the more successful trainers here at “Leafy” in the last couple of years with a record of 22 wins from 68 entries (32.4%) producing level stakes profits of some 18pts at SP with 60% of his runners making the frame. He also has a career strike rate nudging 28% here at Lingfield on the turf via 12 winners from 43 for profits of 18.1pts.
The yard is in great form at present, with 27 winners from their last 100 runners and a 7/21 record in the last fortnight. They run just the one here this evening: Hornboy.
Hornboy steps down in class tonight, having had one race at Class 4 and four at Class 5, but drops down again here. The trainer is very adept at dropping his horses in class to get them on the winning trail with a record of 16 winners from 62 (25.8%) in the last two and a half years.
They do, however, tend to go off at fairly short prices, with over half of them (32 to be precise) being sent off at 4/1 or less, ideal for SotD purposes.
I should add, though, that 13 (40.6%) of those 32 runners dropping in class priced at 4/1 or under have gone on to win, producing a respectable, if not earth shattering 11pts profit. Mind you, that’s still a 34.4% return on your money.
Our selection was placed in three maidens over the winter/spring campaign, but wasn’t quite at it on his return twelve days ago at Windsor, where he finished 5th of 8, going down by just over 5 lengths. That was a much better race than this one and he may well have just needed the run after his break.
This race lacks serious depth / quality and whilst we’re not going to be able to retire on the back of this one, I think that the 2/1 BOG on offer is well worth taking in what should essentially be a two-horse race against a weak (in my opinion!) favourite, who might well be rusty after a break of almost 4 months. I’m on with BetVictor this morning, but to see what your bookie is offering, simply…
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