Stat of the Day, 17th June 2013
A fourth place finish from Hallelujah yesterday. She seemed to be struggling to keep up in the early stages and despite staying on towards the closing stages, was never able to make up the gap, finishing just over three lengths behind the warm favourite Professor.
Today, we’re back on the A/W to look at a Class 5 Maiden and a 4yr old making only his second run in the….
Ralph Beckett has had a wonderful record with maidens throughout his career and since the turn of 2010, 96 of his 489 maiden runners have been successful. That 19.63% strike rate has helped to yield a profit of some 187.25pts or an ROI of 38.3%: not bad work, if you can get it!
Of those 489 runners, 314 had already had the benefit of racecourse experience and this has resulted in 72 winners (22.93%) with profits of a shade over 140pts (+44.6% ROI).
Today Ralph runs Poyle Thomas, a 4-year-old who makes only his second start (debut just 25 days ago!) here at Kempton, where his maidens have a 29.55% strike rate (26/88) and have generated 77.34pts profit (+87.9% ROI). His Kempton maidens who weren’t making their debut have won 21 from 61 in the last three and a half years.
So, what of Poyle Thomas? Well, as a 4yr old maiden making only his second start, there’s not a lot to tell, really. He went well enough on debut without actually threatening the leaders. He was held up by his jockey before staying on quite strongly in the latter stages over ten furlongs and looked to have plenty left in the tank, which augurs well for today’s extra quarter-mile. He really should come on for the experience of having raced and did look like one who would improve.
I wouldn’t have thought that it would take much to win this one today and as such, the 9/4 BOG on offer is considered more fair than it is generous, but there’s probably still enough value for us today. I’d expect him to contract a little as the day progresses. That 9/4 is quite widely available (I’ve gone with Paddy Power, for what its worth), so please…
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