Stat of the Day, 19th June 2013
A terribly disappointing performance from Mighty Whitey left me slightly bemused last night, I must admit. He looked by far the most likely to succeed pre-race and that also seemed to be the general consensus, as he was backed all day long from our 4/1 right into an opening show of 2/1, before finally going off as 9/4 jt fav.
He never really seemed to be in a rhythm during the race and ran wide on occasions, but more disappointing was his lack of energy late on. His jockey has managed to cajole him into a position from which to strike, but alas, there was little to be found and the end result was a. 11.5 lengths defeat back in 5th of 9 runners.
I’m still avoiding the huge Ascot fields and instead I’m heading to Staffordshire for one of my favourite tracks (one I’m hoping to get to later today!), where I’ve selected the second division of a Class 4 Handicap Hurdle featuring eleven runners tackling a trip of just over two and a half miles on good to firm ground aka the….
Whilst pulling together the information for today’s selection, I was almost overcome by number blindness, such was the array of stats available for this one, so we’ll start (as we generally tend to!) with the trainer, who today is Miss Rebecca Curtis.
Miss Curtis’ horses have had a decent last 12 months, achieving a 20% strike rate (42 winners from 209 entries) and she has an excellent record here at Uttoxeter, having secured 10 winners from 28, a strike rate of 35.7%.
Since the start of 2010, she has saddled up eight winners from just seventeen runners at this track and this 47.1% record has helped her generate profits of 11pts at Betfair SP, a return of 64.7% over stakes.
Her record over hurdles (like today’s contest) is even better than those figures above with seven winners from fifteen in total (46.7% strike rate, 11.65pts profit = 77.7% ROI), whilst since the turn of 2010 her Uttoxeter hurdlers have won exactly half of their ten outings and have more than doubled their followers’ money with profits of 10.5pts.
Incidentally her hurdlers are 3/7 for +9.2pts over today’s course and distance, with all three winners coming from just 4 runs in the last 12 months. The last of those runners/winners over today’s C&D was today’s selection My Lad Percy, who attempts to complete a hat trick today.
As regular readers will know, I do like to follow C&D winners who run on the back of a win last time out at certain tracks. Uttoxeter just happens to be one of those tracks too to further strengthen today’s selection. Since the turn of 2011, 45 horses who had a previous Uttoxeter C&D victory to their name have run here on the back of a win (anywhere!) last time out. From that group of 45 runners, 11 have gone on to win, the 31.1% strike rate producing some 37.9pts profit (+84.2% ROI).
My Lad Percy improved dramatically over hurdles since rejoining this yard and sent into handicap company. He was second on his handicap debut before winning twice within a fortnight last month. He’s had a bit of a rest over the last three weeks or so and comes here on a hat-trick after those wins at Worcester and over today’s C&D last time out. He still looks progressive as he seems to have been running within himself whilst clocking up the wins; always looking like he has just been doing enough, but with plenty in reserve.
He comes here on the top of his game and it is possible, however, that the subsequent 6lb rise might his undoing, but jockey Patrick Corbett’s claim takes care of that and I fancy him to complete the hat-trick. If it wasn’t for the possible concern over the weight, he’d be around the 7/2 mark, but as it is, I’m on My Lad Percy at 5/1 BOG with Bet365 (BetVictor also offer the same price). To see what your bookie is offering…….
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