Stat of the Day, 21st June 2013
No action yesterday, as Man Of Leisure was a fairly late withdrawal from the contest. It wan most unfortunate after the earlier scratching of the warm favourite, but there was obviously something else that prevented Mr Honeyball turning his horse out again so soon after the hat-trick. Needless to say, I’ll be keeping an eye out for his return.
We’ll have a crack at another hurdle contest today and this is a Class 4 Juvenile hurdle for 3 year olds over 2m 1f on Good ground. A total of nine runners are set to head for Lincolnshire for today’s….
2.55 Market Rasen
The Philip Hobbs yard is in blinding form at present with five NH winners from nine in the last fortnight, making over 28pts profit in the process. Mr Hobbs is also a dab hand at getting horses to perform first time out for him, after they’ve already run for another trainer in the past.
Since the turn of 2011, Philip has given thirty-seven horses their yard debut after taking them on board from elsewhere and he has achieved a very creditable 27% strike rate, courtesy of ten winners. Those ten winners have yielded level stakes profits of over 29pts (+79%) and with a 50% place strike rate from 36 bets (one was a 4-runner contest!), even the E/W backers have made a decent return of over 25pts to date.
Philip’s sole runner today is the 3 yr old Walter White, who makes his hurdling debut today, after a fair (if unspectacular) campaign on the flat. He won a 9f furlong seller at Wolverhampton for Andrew Balding on New Year’s Day and followed that up with a second place at Lingfield a fortnight later. Philip Hobbs will have schooled this one extensively and his record at getting horses right first time inspires confidence today.
The presence of an odds-on favourite means we’ll get some value in the market, but I’m not entirely convinced that the top weight deserves to be as short as 4/6. That favourite is carrying a penalty for winning on his own NH debut just over a week ago and I fancy Walter White to follow suit, as the two were very closely matched on Official Ratings on the A/W and the 7lb pull might just make the difference here.
When I started writing this piece, our selection was on offer at 9/2, but he seems to be attracting money already and has been trimmed to 4/1 pretty much across the board. So, he official SotD advice os a 1pt win bet on Walter White at 4/1 BOG. I’ve used BetVictor today, but you can choose to use whoever you like. I do, however, recommend that you….
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