Stat of the Day, 22nd June 2013
Walter White looked like Weary Walter yesterday as he seemed to tire quickly late on. He was pretty well fancied all round to take the race, too: it wasn’t just us who backed him! He shortened from 9/2 to 4/1 as I was writing the blog, opened on course at 100/30 and was eventually sent off at 5/2.
Despite him finishing back in fourth place, it’s still a good pick. As both Matt and myself have said on numerous occasions, if we can back 5/2 shots at 60% higher prices, we will turn a profit in the long run.
That is, admittedly, cold comfort this morning, as we’d all like short short-term profit too! I hope to put that straight with today’s….
I’m going to try to be quick here, in case this one shortens as I type!
One of my favoured and most trusted stats is the C&D winner returning on the back of a win and that’s where I start today. From the start of 2011, 43 former CD winners have run on the July course at Newmarket on the back of a win either here or elsewhere. 10 of those 43 have won on their return for a strike rate of 23.26% and level stakes profits of 19.44pts = an ROI of 45.2%.
This is an excellent place to start, but I want to make those qualifiers more relevant to SotD purposes, so I’m going to just consider runners within our usual odds range ie 2/1 to 6/1 and there have been 8 winners from 18 runners in that price bracket: a strike rate of 44.44% producing profits of 24.2pts (+134.4%)
Just one such runner today: Trojan Rocket, who will be ridden by Mickael Barzalona today, which is also a massive positive for the stats followers amongst you.
Mr Barzalona’s record over the July course here at Newmarket is also excellent: 20 winners from 91 (22% strike rate) for profits of 52.4pts (+57.6% ROI) from all runners and when we look at this record on more fancied horses ie 12/1 or under, we then discard 17 losers to leave us with a record of 20/74 (27%) for 69.4pts profit (+93.8% ROI)
I expect Trojan Rocket to attract support as the day progresses, so I’ve taken a bet at 7/2 BOG with Bet365. This price is available at a couple of other firms too, so please….
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