Stat of the Day, 25th June 2013

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 25th June 2013

Well, I was right and wrong at the same time yesterday. I said I wasn’t convinced about the 9/4 favourite carrying the weight and on firmer ground and so it proved. He was eventually 4th at 9/4, but unfortunately that was still a short head in front of our selection, who had been backed in from 4/1 to 5/2. Ours was staying on at the end, but the race was already lost in all honesty.

It’s a trip to the South Coast today for a 7f, Class 5 Handicap on Good to Firm ground, where a total of nine runners will contest the ….

5.15 Brighton

Trainer David Evans has got his string in fine order at present, notching up nine winners from thirty-seven in the last fortnight alone. This impressive 24.32% strike rate has already gathered over 76pts profit for the yard at SP.

David has three runners on the Brighton card today, but it’s the final race I’m most interested in, based on his ability to get C&D winners to win back to back races. David has sent 67 course and distance winners back to the same track after a victory anywhere in the last two and a half years and seventeen of those sixty-seven have won again.

That’s a strike rate of over 25% producing a profit of 17.1 pts (+25.5% ROI), which when allied to the yard’s current form makes The Mongoose an interesting prospect this evening/late afternoon (delete as applicable).

The Mongoose attracted plenty of support when winning over course and distance last week and ran on well to score quite comfortably in what wasn’t that great a contest if truth be told. However it did suggest that he’s well suited by a 7f trip on fast ground and despite a penalty for that win, the presence of a 7lb claimer on board more than offsets that rise in the weights. He quickened readily when asked last time out and once ahead wasn’t going to get beaten and he stayed on strongly to the line. This is admittedly a tougher contest, but he seemed to have plenty left in the tank here last Tuesday.

He reopposes Wishformore today, who beat him at Lingfield 18 days ago, but he seemed to go too quickly too early that day and looked to have learned his lesson last time around. I’d expect him to reverse that form and suggest that the current 6/1 BOG on offer from Ladbrokes is very good value, despite the better standard of opposition on show today. I’ll take a piece of that offer, but for your preferred bookie…

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