Stat of the Day, 26th June 2013
The Mongoose raced a little too keenly yesterday and ended up expending a lot of energy to lead the runners to well inside the final furlong where he simply seemed to run out of steam. In the closing stages of the race, he quickly went from 1st to 4th, a position he just about held on to. He was weak in the market all day and was eventually sent off at 8/1, a full 2pts longer than we’d advised.
It’s All-Weather action today, as we look at a 7f, Class 5 Maiden, where a dozen 2yr olds are set to contest the ….
Saeed Bin Suroor’s 2yr olds are flying this season with eight winners from just thirty-one runners to date, a strike rate of 25.81% yielding profits of 7.24pts, which is a return of 23.35% over stakes wagered. Today’s SotD selection is highly likely to be priced at 4/1 or under and the yard’s record this season with 2 yr olds under 4/1 is 5 winners from 12 (41.67%) for 3.28pts (+27.33% ROI) profit.
The yard has two such runners today, who both have a great chance: Earl Of Menteith is currently a 9/2 shot against a very short favourite in the 2.50 at Salisbury, but it’s stablemate Anglophile that interests me more this evening.
This horse has never raced before, so there’s no form to tell you about, but he is a full brother to Anna Salai, who won a Group 3 race in France back in 2010 and was then the runner-up in the Irish 1000 Guineas a month later.
I’ve no qualms about backing a Bin Suroor 2yr old on debut: he has a record of 26 winners from 105 (24.76%) since 2011, giving profits of 26.2pts (+24.95% ROI), whilst those fancied by the market (ie 4/1 or under) have won 18 of 44 races: a 40.91% strike rate for 16.85pts (38.3%) profit. This season alone, those figures read 7/21 at all odds for 14.16pts profit and 4/7 when priced at 4/1 or under with profits of 4.21pts: a 60.14% return on your money.
In this same 2011/13 timeframe the yard has had 145 runners running on All-Weather for the first time with a total of 50 of them winning on their first attempt on artificial surfaces. This 34.48% strike rate has produced level stakes profits of 38.96pts (26.87% ROI), whilst with our suggested 4/1 odds limit the figures are 45/86 (52.33%) for 61.77pts (+71.83%) profit.
If we further filter down those 145 A/W debuts to those running here at Kempton, we see 26 winners from 71 attempts with 34.57pts (+48.69%) profit coming from that 36.62% strike rate with a record of 21/39 when priced at 4/1 or under. these more fancied runners have yielded some 30.38pts profit, an increase of 77.9% above stakes invested.
And finally(!), if we take a quick look at Saeed Bin Suroor’s 2yr olds having their first run and being sent to Kempton, we find that 9 out of 18 have won for profits of 14pts with 8 out 13 winning at 4/1 or under for 16.62pts profit.
I fully appreciate that there are lots of numbers in this piece, but there’s no form to go off today. Nevertheless, there’s enough there for me to be happy enough to take a 1pt win bet on Anglophile at 7/2 BOG with BetVictor (both Coral and William Hill are matching this at present), so please…
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