A last race blowout yesterday, and in slightly bizarre fashion, as the forecast short-priced favourite, Paphos, drifted to 9/2 before being returned to 7/2. That strongly implied something amiss, and so it proved. He ran a weak race and was well beaten. Blah blah, onwards and downwards, specifically to the dog track at Yarmouth, where I’m relying on class and local knowledge to get through the early rounds so I can perm up in the middle!
2.20 – Leg 1: We’ll chance the early bath to save some ammo, and bank on Ghasabah. True, she was beaten far enough when third on debut. True, that was on the all-weather. And true, she’s probably no value at around 6/5. But we can’t take six in each race, so she’s our hope!
A – 5 (Ghasabah)
2.50 – Leg 2: Again, I’m going short, but this time I’m siding with course form. The two I like are Pink Lips and Enriching, both of whom are multiple course winners and running in the right class today. It’s a competitive sort of race, but I’ll be disappointed if we don’t get at least one of that pair placed.
A – 4 (Enriching), 6 (Pink Lips)
3.20 – Leg 3: OK, good. If we’re still going, it’s time to spread out a little and chase a rainbow (or at least a small pot of gold). This is a bad race, with a sole pace angle in Viva L’Inghilterra, trained by Robert Cowell. While Cowell has the ‘x factor’ with sprinters, this is probably the worst in his yard. And yet he is less exposed than many and ought to get a soft lead on a pace-favouring track. B.
The thrice raced maiden, Welsh Moonlight, drops down markedly in trip and isn’t really bred for this. She has also fluffed the start all three runs to date, so it’s a proper leap of faith to roll with her, despite top weight on her first handicap attempt. Despite all that, she’s taken bits of support by shrewd connections and I’ll field her on B.
Up top, on the A tickets, I’ll bank with Green Monkey, the only conceivable pace danger to Viva L’Inghilterra, and by far the most likely winner in a dire affair.
Senora Lobo has at least won, and won here, albeit over six furlongs. That alone is enough to get on B in a shocker of a contest where Green Monkey could easily outclass poor horses.
A – 2 (Green Monkey)
B – 1 (Welsh Moonlight), 3 (Senora Lobo), 6 (Viva L’Inghilterra)
3.55 – Leg 4: This five runner puzzle raises the spectre of a non-runner making it win only. That could lead to carnage, and I’ll play it with that in mind, by covering the entire quintet. Those on the pace have done very well over two miles here, and in such a short field, Mark Johnston’s Bounty Seeker must have a great chance of going one better than his second under similar conditions in a better race last time.
Queen’s Star might need a stiffer test than this if it turns tactical but she at least won last time out, and that’s enough for A here.
On B, I’m adding the rest without prejudice to the market, and I’m praying for another non-runner, and a quirky result that even Mystic Meg (owner of Astrogold) couldn’t have predicted!
A – 4 (Bounty Seeker), 6 (Queen’s Star)
B – 3 (Foster’s Road), 5 (Naburn), 7 (Astrogold)
4.30 – Leg 5: Aegeus is a funny horse. He’s owned by Lord Derby and bred to win a Derby! But so far, this son of Monsun, who can call that superb mare, Ouija Board, his mummy, has done little of note on the track, and still less on the lawn. But today might be his day. A longer trip and quicker ground could be what he needs, and he’s worth including on A.
Colinca’s Lad is the most reliable course prospect, having won three times here, and also having run an absolute blinder from the front when holding on for third behind Sheikhzayedroad at Epsom last time. There does seem to be a few that want to get on with it here, which means he might not get his own way: that would compromise his chance, but he’s including on A in any case.
On B, I’m looking at closers, and specifically Queen’s Estate and Layline, both of which are fair prices.
A – 3 (Aegeus), 5 (Colinca’s Lad)
B – 6 (Queen’s Estate), 7 (Layline)
5.05 – Leg 6: Wow, that’s a lot of shots fired in the quest for a randomizer result through the middle of the card, but I’ve still saved a couple more to finish the job here. Of course, if the jollies all place it will be for nough, but nothing ventured nothing gained and all that.
Josie’s Dream won last time out, and has been in the first three on six of his twelve career starts. He’s going the right way, and could defy his penalty. Astroscarlet should get the run of it on the front end, and is a danger as a result; while Peace In Our Time ran a good second on turf two starts back, his first piece of grass form from just three tries.
A – 1 (Peace In Our Time), 2 (Josie’s Dream), 4 (Astroscarlet)
Just A’s – 1 x 2 x 1 x 2 x 2 x 3 = 24 bets
All picks – 1 x 2 x 4 x 5 x 4 x 3 = 480 bets
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