Stat of the Day, 30th June 2013
No triumphant return for me yesterday, as Squire looked pretty ordinary if truth be told. He was slowly away and made little impression thorughout, eventually trailing home eighth of the ten runners on display at a very well backed price of 7/2, after we’d taken the value price of 9/1. A small moral victory, I suppose, but they don’t enhance the bottom line.
With this in mind, I look to close out the month on a high with a victory in a Class 3, 6 furlong affair on good ground that is firmer in places. We’re expecting a total of nine runners to contest the decent enough (for a Sunday anyway!) pot of £12,000 in the…
On a largely unattractive day of racing that is pretty much bereft of workable stats, I’m going back to a couple of my tried and tested methods regarding course and distance winners.
Former course and distance winners returning to Salisbury fare very well here when reappearing on the back of a win. It is admittedly a small sample size of just a dozen runners in the last couple of years, but four winners and 2 places from those twelve runners is worth taking note of. It is also worth noting that from this twelve runner sample, the stat is 4 winners and 2 places from 10 if we apply a 6/1 odds ceiling.
There are actually two such horses running at Salisbury today: Presto Volante looks to have a fighting chance at 9/2 in the 4.05 race, but it’s the following race I’m more interested in where the selection is Intermath.
I prefer Intermath, because there’s a second set of CD winners’ stats to further reinforce the selection. This one is trained by David Evans and when David runs a horse back at the track where it has won over course and distance and has won last time out, he has a 25% strike rate, courtesy of 17 winners from 68 since the start of the 2011 season and perhaps more telling is the figures when we look in our general odds ranges for SotD. These horses have produced ten winners from just 38 when priced between 5/2 and 8/1: a 26.32% strike rate giving rise to a level stakes profit of 30.63pts or 80.61% of stakes wagered.
So, what of Intermath? Well, there’s not a great deal to tell: he won over C&D on his only race to date and could actually be classed as a little fortunate to win that day, but either way, he certainly belied the 33/1 price tag he carried on debut.
The race itself was run at a decent clip and the final time for the race was considered pretty quick, so despite the element of good luck he had, he still ran a fast race and should come on gor the experience. This doesn’t look a particularly tough contest today and even normal progression should be enough to take this one.
We’re not getting that 33/1 again though, at the time I wrote this (12.30am!), the best I could get was 9/2 BOG from Paddy Power, but I’m happy enough to take that for a 1pt straight win bet, but I advise you to…
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