Stat of the Day, 1st July 2013

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 1st July 2013

June ended in a somewhat bizarre fashion yesterday, as according to the Sporting Life / Racing Post, Intermath was “Keen in touch, jinked at path and unseated rider over 3f out.” But I’ve watched this race on several occasions now and Tom Queally came off well before the path and there was very little visible movement from the horse. It looked more like the jockey just slipped off to me.

Whatever happened, our jockey hit the deck with only half the race run, so we lost a 1pt there. I’m looking to start July in a better fashion in the…

5.30 Pontefract

Where I’m siding with the mother / daughter  combination of trainer Karen Tutty and jockey Gemma Tutty. When they team up together, the results are generally very good.

Since the turn of 2011, Karen has utilised Gemma’s very handy 7lb claim on thirty occasions, achieving five wins (16.67%) for 56.15pts profit: a return of some 187% over stakes and a record of 3/9 for +15pts when priced below 7/1. (and 3/6 when priced in the 4/1 to 7/1 bracket, but that might be narrowing things too far!)

They team up again today with Talent Scout who was a winner for our Daily Dabble last time out at Beverley almost three weeks ago and comes here looking to complete a hat-trick, having also won at Carlisle in his previous outing to the Beverley success.

Gemma Tutty was on board for both those victories and her record when riding Talent Scout reads 1011 with winners at 9/2 and 5/1 twice ie inside our normal parameters with the unplaced run coming at 14/1.

Talent Scout may well be a 7 yr old now, but he’s having a new lease of life in recent times and I think the recent use of cheekpieces has helped him close races out better than he used to. He was getting placed consistently for trainer Tim Walford, who then applied the cheekpieces for the horse’s last three runs for that yard. Gemma rode the last of those two races and quite possibly advised her mother to stick with the cheekpieces, as the horse’s record wearing them reads 11011 and they are, of course being worn again today.

We are faced with the prospect of a 5lb rise in the weights this afternoon, but if Talent Scout continues to run as he has of late, I’d expect us to be there or thereabouts come 5.05pm or so.

The racecard for this contest is here.

The increased weight has probably lengthened the odds on this one and the 5/1 BOG which is on offer in most places looks fair if not overly generous. That said Stan James are currently going 11/2 on this one, so that’s where my shilling is going. I do, however, recommend that you…

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