Stat of the Day, 3rd July 2013

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 3rd July 2013

It was the runner-up slot for us yesterday, I’m afraid. The very well-backed Beacon Lady ( we took 5/2 , she opened on course at the same price and was eventually sent off at 6/4 ) was given what looked like too much to do late on for my liking. She was still in last place with just over a furlong to run and by the time she got towards the head of the pack, the eventual winner had already got first run and defeated our selection by a length and a half.

All-weather action this evening and the heady heights of a Class 5 Maiden Fillies’ Stakes. The trip is seven furlongs for the eleven runners set to contest the…

7.50 Kempton

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Saeed Bin Suroor is one of the sport’s better trainers at getting horses to improve on their second run, especially if the horse was unplaced (but not beaten heavily, of course!) on debut. Since the start of the 2011 season, he has run 41 such horses with a win strike rate of over 26.8%, courtesy of 11 winners.

It is worth noting, that if the market likes these horses, then they generally do very well. All 11 of those winners were priced between evens and 6/1 (our normal SotD parameters) from just 29 runners: this strike rate of 37.9% has yielded just over 13pts profit, a return of almost 45% over stakes invested.

Today’s selection that fits that bill is Taleteller, a 2 yr old who finished 7th of 9 on debut at Haydock three weeks ago, but despite her lowly finishing position, she was only beaten by six lengths in a race where only 4.5 lengths separated 2nd from 9th of all 9 runners, so it was a fairly close run affair that day and she certainly wasn’t disgraced.

This is, obviously, her first visit to Kempton, a track where her trainer excels with a 1 in 3 strike rate over the years and he is 3/7 this season (full record 1221717) alone and the yard is very adept at getting horses to fire on their race on this surface.

Since 2011, 26 of the yard’s 72 runners appearing here at Kempton on the A/W for the very first time have gone on to win. This 36.1% strike rate has given rise to profits of 33.6pts, a return of almost 47% and when we narrow our scope down to runners priced below 6/1, we find 25 winners from 53 with 43pts (81% ROI) profit coming from that 47.2% strike rate.

Incidentally, if this first crack at Kempton is the horse’s 2nd race ever, the record reads 7/11 for 11pts profit.

The racecard for this contest is here.

With all this in mind, I fully expect Taleteller to improve for the experience of having had a run and the fact that she’ll be near to the head of the market, if not the actual favourite, doesn’t deter me at all. This is a race where the fancied horses have done well in the past and at 11/4 BOG with William Hill, I fancy our chances of improving upon yesterday’s result. At the time I wrote this, I only had prices from 2 firms, so it might be as well to…

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PS The yard also has Respect Me running in the 7.20 race, making his first Kempton start and looks to have a decent chance at odds of around 7/2.


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