Five out of six yesterday, including a couple of decent – and fancied – winners. But no good from a placepot perspective, with e divvy being moderate as well. Today, I’m going for a ‘smash up’ at Yarmouth. It often happens there, due to the track being so bad!
2.10 – Leg 1: We’re going to need to conserve some lines for later, so I’m taking the favourite against the field here. He’s a cheap place lay for insurance types, but the key thing is that he might be underbet due to the ‘7’ next to his name. That’s in stark contrast to the ’33’ of the second favourite, and the royal blue jacket on unraced Mathematics.
His debut run would normally be good enough to place here if replicated, and a step forward would see him go close to winning. Let’s hope Speedfiend lives up to his name! I’m going to chuck in Mappa Mundi on B, as I thought he ran a very nice race on debut.
A – 7 (Speedfiend)
B – 4 (Mappa Mundi)
2.40 – Leg 2: This ought to be between the frustrating if consistent Gin Time and Flora Medici. My Little Friend could trouble them if getting an easy lead, while Ivan B surely can’t win. It’s win only and I’ll take the three with any realistic chance across A and B.
A – 3 (Flora Medici), 4 (Gin Time)
B – 2 (My Little Friend)
3.10 – Leg 3: I reckon this fast seven will be perfect for Levi Draper, but whether the track will is another question. He’s the likeliest winner without question, and earns sole A status on the basis. But I’ll shore up on B with known local form, in the shape of First Class and Afkar. The latter might be taken on for the lead by Paphos and Diplomatic, which could compromise his chance, but Levi Draper should be sitting on their tails in any case.
A – 4 (Levi Draper)
B – 1 (Afkar), 6 (First Class)
3.40 – Leg 4: Despite the big field, Imaginary Diva actually looks really solid here. She’s twice a course and distance winner, is in fine form, goes well in the grade, and has won twice for the jockey. She’s A material, and I’ll take a chance on A alongside her with an unlikely placepot type for many tickets in Sir Geoffrey. He’s dropped a very long way down the handicap since his career high win off 80, but was good enough to prevail this time last year off 68. A peg of just 50 here is a penalty kick on that form… if he can find that form.
Luke Morris is booked, which suggests he’s fancied, as does the money around for him, and this is not a race that would take a lot of winning, that much is for certain.
We’ll go to B here too, and chuck in Lord Buffhead, Charming and Whiskey Junction in a race with a lot of early pace.
A – 2 (Imaginary Diva), 7 (Sir Geoffrey)
B – 1 (Charming), 3 (Lord Buffhead), 5 (Whiskey Junction)
4.10 – Leg 5: Odeliz is an obvious one here, just getting up over a mile in a race which has worked out well, and seemingly gagging for this extra furlong. Freeport will appreciate it too, and comes here in fine form after a shared win and a second so far this season. He’s pleasing connections at home, I can report. There are dangers further down the list in a race which might cause us a degree of head-scratching by 4.15, but I’ve used up plenty of bullets already, alas.
Super Cookie might outrun her odds from a low weight and with form at this specialist trip, but I don’t like her enough for A, and I’m not playing B’s here.
A – 3 (Odeliz), 4 (Freeport)
4.40 – Leg 6: Which brings us to the ‘lucky last’, a five runner handicap which could go win only with one more non-runner (already two down). Willow Beck was green as the grass she wasn’t running on last time when winning at Wolverhampton over three-eighths shorter. She’s bred for this trip, but what she’ll make of the track after that amateurish showing the last day is an unknown.
In the circumstances, it seems sensible to side with Hydrant, who is a much more reliable – if possessing less potential – proposition. He may very well make every yard.
If one does come out, you can save by making some exactas on the remaining trio of runners, obviously loaded towards Willow Beck winning (if that makes sense).
A – 1 (Hydrant)
Just A’s – 1 x 2 x 1 x 2 x 2 x 1 = 8 bets
All picks – 2 x 3 x 3 x 5 x 2 x 1 = 180 bets
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