Stat of the Day, 5th July 2013

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 5th July 2013

Freeport was well beaten yesterday, as he finished 4th of the 6 runners in a race won by the 14/1 bottom weight. Our runner was very one paced and finished the thick end of seven lengths off the winner who just held on to beat the favourite by a neck.

As Sod’s Law tends to dictate, however, the other Brian Meehan runner I liked, Great Hall, was a 13/2 winner at haydock, so hopefully some of you got on that.

Yorkshire is today’s port of call and more specifically a Class 4 Fillies Handicap over a mile and a half. The going is set to be good to firm and I expect eight runners to line up for the…

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4.10 Doncaster

Matt (Mr Geegeez himself) told me a good while ago to look out for 3 yr olds competing in these open age handicaps, as the sliding weight for age allowance especially in races on 12 furlongs or more gives the 3 yr olds a better chance than they would normally have.

Obviously with any angle like this, some trainers are better than others at exploiting this and one such trainer is an old friend of SotD: Saeed Bin Suroor.

Last season, he had ten such runners, but if we disregard the two that ran at odds of 12/1 and 16/1 respectively (ie horses we wouldn’t put up for SotD) we see he had a record of four wins and a place from just eight runners. It’s admittedly a small sample size, but a 50% strike rate that generated an ROI of over 138% via 11.05pts profit cannot be ignored.

As is our general approach here, Saeed has just one such horse running today: Controversy.

Controversy is a very lightly raced filly and today will be only her third start after she broke her maiden tag in a dead heat at Kempton last time out when finishing strongly over ten furlongs. She’s expected to cope with the step up to a mile and a half today, with her being a half-sister to Lawspeaker, a winner of three listed races at this trip.

Today represents her first outing in a handicap contest and Saeed Bin Suroor’s record with handicap debutants is taken as further reinforcement of the selection today. He has been constantly successful at getting horses to win on handicap debut, especially when they are fancied in the market.

Since 2008, he has saddled up 28 such winners from 74 runners priced between evens and 6/1. This excellent 37.84% strike rate has yielded some 52.9pts profit, an ROI of  71.5% and the more cautious of you out there should also note that 57% of these runners have made the frame for E/W returns of 43.8pts (+29.6% ROI).

The racecard for this contest is here.

The best price for Controversy at the moment is 11/2 BOG. I’ve had a 1pt win bet with BetVictor, but I should point out that both Bet365 and William Hill are matching those odds, so I suggest that you…

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