Stat of the Day, 5th July 2013
I’m running late today, as my Hay Fever kicks into overdrive, so I’ll be keeping this brief! Controversy wasn’t great yesterday, looking like he’d run out of steam with still a good furlong or so to run. He eventually finished 4th, the best part of 8 lengths behind the eventual winner.
A nine-runner, Class 5 Maiden over seven furlongs on Good to Firm ground now awaits us in the…
William Haggas has a decent record in non-handicap races here at Leicester and in the last two years alone has saddled up four winners from nine and these were priced at reasonable odds, returning some 23.17pts profit.
Today’s contest is a maiden, where his record over the last three years here at Leicester is five wins from fourteen (35.7%) for a gain of 20.98pts, an ROI of almost 150%.
Mr Haggas runs three horses here at Leicester today, but just one in a non-handicap/maiden and that’s the consistent Sky Garden.
Despite still being a maiden after five starts, Sky Garden has been knocking on the door (finishing 32233) and is expected/hoped that both the application of blinkers and the step up in trip will be the catalyst for her first victory. There may be some doubts as to whether she’ll get the trip first time out, but if she does, she certainly has the speed needed to close the race out.
The new conditions she faces in a bid to shed her maiden tag have created a little uncertainty in the market and the 5/1 BOG that I’ve gladly taken from Paddy Power is longer than I expected to get this morning. I’d have expected a bet in the 4/1 region to be honest. Non-BOG bettors can actually get 11/2 with SkyBet too, so why not…