Stat of the Day, 8th July 2013
OK, so we now know that Able Master stays the mile as Danny Tudhope gave him a great ride yesterday. He hit the front early, made all and just about stayed on to win by a half-length. Hindsight is a wonderful thing and I now obviously wished I hadn’t edged my bets by taking the E/W option. Mind you, the 7/1 E/W bet still paid out at 4.38/1 overall, considerably better than the 3/1 SP recorded after the race itself.
That made for a good end to the week and we hope to start the new week in a similar vein as we head back to Yorkshire for some evening sunshine (hopefully!). I’ve gone for a decent looking Class 3 Handicap on good to firm ground (good in places), where eight runners are scheduled to tackle the six furlongs in pursuit of a decent pot (over £7,500 for the winner) in the…
I wrote yesterday about David O’Meara’s horses being in good form and yesterday’s SotD winner improved his record for the month to eight winners and five placed from twenty-eight runners and it will hopefully pay to side with him again today.
David has quite a number of runners out today (two up at Ayr and four here at Ripon), but the one I’m keen on here is Bondesire, who will seek to improve upon Mr O’Meara’s record with course and distance winners looking for back to back victories.
Since the start of the 2011 season, David O’Meara has run 38 course and distance runners back at the scene of their C&D win after winning last time out anywhere at all. 10 of these 38 have won their race on their return to that track with seven others making the frame. The 26.3% strike rate has generated profits of 15.3 pts, a return of over 40% ROI (2/4 at Ripon for +18.8pts!)
Furthermore all previous C&D winners, regardless of trainer, returning to Ripon on the back of a win last time out have a 21.4% strike rate and an ROI of over 55% in the last three years.
Bondesire ticks both boxes today as she bids to complete a hat-trick inside five weeks. She shed her maiden tag with her C&D win here on June 4th, which she followed up with a win at Newcastle over the shorter 5f trip just 10 days ago. She seemed to have plenty in the tank on both occasions finishing strongly in each race.
Just like yesterday’s selection, Bondesire likes to race prominently and if allowed to dictate affairs, she’ll prove very hard to pass/beat. I’m pleased to see Paul Hanagan on board this evening, as he seem a pretty good judge of pace when riding from the front, a difficult skill to master, but he’ll be aided by the opportunity to grab the rails from stall 6. Our mount is raised 4lbs for her win last time out, but I fancy her to still be too quick for the rest of them tonight.
A quick check of the market shows she’s currently available as high as 3/1 BOG in places, so that’s the advised 1pt win bet today.I’ve gone with BetVictor to reinvest some of yesterday’s winnings, but at the time of press both bet365 and Ladbrokes were matching that, so I suggest that you…