Stat of the Day, 9th July 2013
A narrow defeat for Bondesire yesterday, finishing 3rd at odds of 7/2, half a point longer than our early BOG price. She showed yet again how well David O’Meara’s horses are running at the moment, as she wasn’t disgraced in going down by a length and a half to the impressive Pipers Note who was landing back to back Course and Distance wins.
A/W action this evening and a spin around the Nottinghamshire Fibresand for a five furlong, Class 6 Nursery (2yo) contest, where we expect seven runners to line up for the…
James Given seems to have a knack of getting his horses to fire first time on the All-Weather. In the last couple of years, he has introduced 69 runners to a new A/W track and 22 of them have gone on to win. This excellent 31.9% strike rate has produced profit figures of 129.1pts, an ROI of some 187.1%.
Of those 69 runners, 19 were making their first appearance here at Southwell and 8 of those 19 were winners too. That’s a remarkable 42.1% succes, yielding a huge return on stakes of almost 340% via 64.3pts profits.
James has just one runner here at Southwell tonight in the form of the 2 yr old filly Sandsman’s Girl, who becomes our pick for the day.
Today is her first ever race here at Southwell and only her fourth start in total. After finishing 4th on debut at Wolverhampton, she shed her maiden tag a fortnight later with victory at Redcar. Both of those races were over today’s minimum trip at Class 5 level and she seemed to stay on well on both occasions. The form of her Redcar win looks to be playing out well as both the second and third placed horses won on their next starts.
Today is a drop down in Class from both of those decent runs and a marked drop in class from her last outing, the Queen Mary Stakes at Ascot three weeks ago.
Predictably outclassed that day, she finished back in 20th of the 23 runners at 100/1, but her mere presence there that day tends to suggest the yard think something of her and that defeat was no disgrace and is best left out of today’s considerations as she makes her handicap debut.
As today is indeed her handicap debut, it’s interesting (to me, anyway!) to note that James Given’s record with horses making their handicap debut on All-Weather tracks reads five winners from twelve over the last couple of years, a 41.67% strike rate giving way to profits of 36.25pts (+302.1% ROI) with horses priced below 12/1. That record is 2 winners from 3 for 17pts profit here at Southwell!
Mecca’s Angel looks to be the one to beat today, but I think the 7/2 BOG on offer for Sandsman’s Girl is a decent enough price, so it’s a 1pt win bet at those odds. That price is quite widely available and I’ve got on with bet365 this morning, but for your pick of the bookies…