Daily Dabble, 10th July 2013
Unfortunately, yesterday went the way I feared it might. Sweet Martoni was the more speculative of the two selections at 16/1 and although she ran well enough under a decent ride from Mickael Barzalona, it wasn’t quite enough. As it was, she was less than 2 lengths away from the money back in 5th place, but she was by no means disgraced.
The safer option, Bapak Muda, didn’t fare quite as well as I thought he might, as he was beaten late in the final furlong by a 33/1 shot. E/W Singles backers will have just about got their stakes back from a 5/1 second placed finish.
Not really good enough, if I’m brutally honest and I expect better today, starting with the..
Tornado Battle is a half-brother to At The Brink, a winner of some 13 races at a mile or shorter and also to Juniper Pass, a US Grade 2 winner over a mile, so there’s plenty in the breeding to suggest he’ll have some pace. He ran very green on debut, finishing 5th of 6, but has been away from the track since that debut almost five months ago. Trainer mark Johnston is very good at taking horses away for lengthy breaks and then returning to win with seven winners from twenty-five this season alone with horses coming off breaks of 3 to 6 months. This doesn’t look a strong contest at all and he looks massively overpriced at odds of up to 11/1 in places, although a more realistic 8/1 seems the general consensus.
Fairyinthewind is till very unexposed at this level with just three NH starts to date and she makes her handicap debut this evening. She was, admittedly, very disappointing last time out when running at Wincanton off a stiff weight, but she had looked very good when landing a maiden hurdle by seven lengths over today’s course and distance on her previous outing. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if she made a big impact now sent out in handicap company and if her jumping holds up, I’d expect her to be there or thereabouts at the close. Speed between the hurdles should be an issue with this one, as she has plenty of good runs under her belt on the flat at trips of up to 1m 2f and achieved an Official Rating of 74. The current odds of 7/1 look fair to me and I think she has a very good chance of landing what looks like an open contest.
Today’s double pays 89/1 BOG today with Bet365, whilst the place element is priced at just over 13/2 (6.68/1 to be exact).
Back Tornado Battle & Fairyinthewind in an each way double with Bet365 with the win part paying 89/1 (Best Odds Guaranteed)