Stat of the Day, 10th July 2013

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 10th July 2013

On the face of things, a 9/4 favourite finishing 3rd of 7 runners and some twelve and a half lengths behind the winner of a five furlong race doesn’t sound very good. However, Sandsman’s Girl performed better than the bare facts would suggest.

The truth is that the winner and the one I highlighted as the danger, Mecca’s Angel, absolutely flew from the stalls and blitzed it. Our selection ran well enough and looked like she was staying on at the end. We didn’t get the win, but taking 7/2 about a 9/4 favourite is always good news.

We’re off to the seaside today for a fillies handicap. We’ve got six runners tackling this Class 5 contest over nine furlongs, where the going is likely to be good to firm for the…

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3.40 Yarmouth

Roger Varian’s horses are running pretty well at present and in the last fortnight alone, half of his twenty-eight runners have been placed, of which seven were winners.

He also has a very good record here at Yarmouth with a strike rate fast approaching 25%, courtesy of 8 winners from 33. If we disregard his Yarmouth runners priced over 4/1, we find 8 winners and 4 further placed horses from 15 runners. This 53.33% strike rate is very appealing to me and has generated 9.5pts profit to boot, a return of 63.3% over stakes.

If we look at his record in handicap races here, that record with horses priced 4/1 or under reads five winners and two placers from eight for profits of 8.31pts.

Roger runs three horses here today, of which two run in handicaps. Panettone looks to have a chance at 5/1 in the 3.10 race, but my focus today is on Qawaafy, a lightly raced three-year old who has improved for each of her four runs to date with finishes of 5442 in maidens so far.

Today represents her handicap debut and her trainer has a 21.5% strike rate with handicap debutants and the yard is 6/22 this season. The strike rate for their handicaps debutants priced at 4/1 or under is a very decent 25.6%.

Qawaafy is the daughter of Eswarah who won the Oaks back in 2005 and her recent second placed finish at Haydock over a mile on ground slightly softer than the official good declaration suggested that she’d relish both a slight step up in trip (one furlong more today) and some faster ground, which she’ll certainly get today. One would expect that she’ll get further in time too.

An opening mark of 70 doesn’t look too onerous based on her previous performances and the booking of Paul Hanagan is a positive move for me, as Paul has won 14 of his last 50 handicap rides here.

The racecard for this contest is here.

When I started the write-up, Qawaafy was available at 3/1, but that seems to have already gone, so the call is now a 1pt win bet at 11/4 BOG. I’ve used Paddy Power today, but a whole host of firms are matching that price, so why not…

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