Daily Dabble, 11th July 2013
As has been the case on many occasions for the Daily Dabble, it was one in and one out and it proved to be the final straw for this service as an E/W double attempt. (We’ll have to change the logo, of course!)
The fact that we highlighted yet another decent priced winner (Fairyinthewind at 7/1) coupled with an unplaced selection meant that yet again we drew nothing back from the bet and as such it’s not viable to continue in this format.
Both Matt and myself appreciate that many of you back these as singles and/or as part of a Trixie with SotD, but as a concept of finding doubles, it’s simply not working.
We recently took the decision to move SotD to a sub 6/1 win only selection service to improve the strike rate and the returns and that seems to be bearing fruit now, so the plan here is that we’ll look to double two fancied horses to create a double in the 3/1 to 5/1 range. These odds parameters aren’t set in stone, but will provide me with a guideline / framework to work to.
We’re going to trial this for the next three weeks and I hope to hit the ground running starting with the..
Cara Gina has had a meteoric rise of late, winning her last three contests in the space of 17 days from mid-June. She completed that hat-trick of wins (all at Bath over 5.5f) nine days ago and aims to make it four from four here today. Despite missing the break completely last time out, she still strolled to a comfortable 4 lengths victory and I’ve not convinced that even a 4lb rise plus a 6lb penalty will be enough to stop her this afternoon. She’s available in the Evens to 5/4 region today and I’d expect her to win and quite likely at a shorter price.
I’m very interested in Saeed bin Suroor’s runner Wadi Al Hattawi here. He won pretty comfortably on debut in a maiden last September at Wolverhampton and hasn’t been seen since, but in his absence from the track, 8 of the 12 horses he beat that day have gone on to win since. He now enters the handicap fray for a yard in form and one that does really well with handicap debutants. As a 3yr old competing in an open age handicap, he’s getting handfuls of weight all round and this coupled with the nature of his debut win means he’s the most likely here and is priced accordingly at 15/8 or so.
Back Cara Gina & Wadi Al Hattawi in a double with Paddy Power paying almost 11/2 BOG (5.325/1 to be precise)