Stat of the Day, 11th July 2013
Qawaafy was a comfortable winner yesterday for us at 11/4, a good half point shorter than the 9/4 SP and she was given a lovely ride by the experienced Paul Hanagan. After being bumped at the start, she quickly regained composure and travelled best of all the runners throughout.
Paul saved his run for the line until inside the final furlong and once he asked the horse to go, the race was won. She was pulling further clear with every stride and looked impressive at the finish.
SotD is off to HQ today for the July Stakes, where over £45,000 awaits the winner of this 11-runner, Group 2 contest on good to firm ground. The trip is six furlongs for the…
Mickael Barzalona has four rides here at Newmarket today: a course on which he tends to excel. To date he has ridden 23 winners here from 103 attempts, a strike rate of 22.6% for profits of 55.7pts at betfair SP, that’s a 54% return on your money. When we consider just those horses in the Evens to 6/1 odds range, he then has a winning record of 1 in 3 (17 from 51) and the ROI jumps up to a very impressive 69.3%, thanks to profits of 35.4pts.
Of his four rides here today, two of them will invariably go off at longer prices, whilst Fratellino might just scrape in (currently 13/2 in the 5.00 race), leaving us with Figure of Speech, who is running only his second ever race today, but he was very impressive indeed when winning on debut here over course and distance just three weeks ago.
It’s also worth pointing out that horses that won here over course and distance last time go on to win again in 22% of races in the last three seasons: 11 wins from 50 for 24pts profit. The yard is in really good nick with 7 winners from 22 in the last week alone and although this represents a tougher task than his debut, the manner of his win means he must be respected.
The presence of Sir John Hawkins (3rd in the Coventry Stakes at Ascot) will inevitably skew the betting somewhat and may afford us some value in our selection and I’m still not entirely convinced that the favourite is as good as his breeding suggests he might be and he’s there for the taking today. If he shows any signs of the immaturity he showed at Ascot, we’ve a very good chance of turning him over at a decent price.
As expected, the favourite is quite short (around 2/1) for this one, which means we can stake our 1pt win bet on Figure of Speech at relatively generous odds of 9/2 BOG with Stan James (this price is also on offer at Ladbrokes), so for your preferred bookie…