Stat of the Day, 16th July 2013
After idling somewhat before the run in, Party Palace seemed to get a second wind and stayed on well at the finish to take yesterday’s race by a good couple of lengths in the end.
I’d originally backed her at 11/4, which I felt was decent enough, but the general market disagreed, as she opened on course at 4/1 and was eventually sent off at a very big 9/2. This once again highlights the need to use a BOG bookie, as that drift in price brought us an extra 1.75pts.
A/W action for us this evening as we attempt to unravel the…
Where I’m backing About Turn in this 6f maiden. He’s a 2-year-old chestnut colt making his racecourse debut today from the yard of Saeed bin Suroor.
Regular readers of SotD will know that I like to follow this yard’s 2 yr olds and they’re certainly getting a great tune out of them at the moment with a 26% strike rate for the season to date and six winners from fourteen this month alone!
The yard tends to do very well with racecourse debutants and the 2011/13 period twenty-nine of their 109 debutants have won first time out with a strike rate of 26.6% producing level stakes profits of 41.24pts, a return on stakes of 37.8% and they’re 6/19 here at Kempton in that same period with horses priced at 6/1 or under, returning 16pts profit, effectively doubling their followers’ money.
This year alone, the yard is 10/32 for 22.2pts profit with its 2 yr old debutants.
The yard also do very well when they introduce a horse to an A/W surface for the first time, especially if the market likes the look of it. Over the last couple of years their record with any horse running at a new A/W track reads 46/91 (50.55%) when priced at 4/1 or under, with a return of over 65% via 59.84pts profit. At Kempton, that record reads 21/42 (50%) for 27.38pts profit (+65.2%), which is consistent with the yard’s overall performance.
Since today is About Turn‘s first ever run, we’ve no form to go off, but he is a brother to Prescription, who has won three times at this 6f trip and the dam Doctors Glory has already produced 7 winners from 20 races over today’s trip and her offspring are 12/54 on A/W tracks for over 40pts profit.
Our selection has been well drawn in stall 1 today, so will have the benefit of the rail and will also have use of the very talented Mickael Barzalona who has been amongst the winners recently and also has a 27.5% strike rate on horses priced below 6/1 here at Kempton, courtesy of 11 winners from 40, giving 12.6pts profit to boot.
We are, unfortunately, not the only people with access to all these stats, so it’s highly likely that our selection will go off as favourite. There’s also a distinct possibility that his price will contract as the day progresses, so it’s a 1pt win bet on About Turn at 5/2 BOG for me. That price is currently on offer with BetVictor, Paddy Power and William Hill, so to take your pick of the bookies, simply…