Stat of the Day, 17th July 2013
Back to back winners for SotD after the Godolphin debutant About Turn won rather cosily at Kempton last night. Mickael Barzalona kept him in a handy position and when asked to quicken a furlong out, he readily did so. In fact such was his acceleration away from his rivals, that he was able to be eased down at the finish.
We took 5/2 yesterday morning and that proved to be his SP, adding another 2.5pts to the bank and I’m aiming to complete a hat-trick in a Class 6 Handicap for 3 yr olds. The ground is inevitably good to firm for the thirteen runners set to tackle the 11.5 furlongs in the…
Roger Charlton has, somewhat surprisingly, only had 70 runners on the turf here at Lingfield in his career stretching back to 2000. Yet he has managed to saddle up 17 winners from those 70 runners, an impressive 24.3% strike rate at all odds. And in the last four years here, his record is a staggering seven wins from thirteen: a 53.9% strike rate yielding some 13.48pts profit (+103.7% ROI).
Roger has just the one runner here today: First Secretary, a 3yr old bay filly who makes her handicap debut in this Class 6 contest after being outpaced in three Class 5 Maidens over much shorter trips than today. The extra three furlongs are quite important today, as is the drop in Class and both of these will back up the trainer stats quoted above.
If we firstly look at Roger Charlton’s record over the last couple of years with horses dropping in class. When one of Roger’s horses has been dropped a class and has been priced at below 12/1, the win strike rate runs out at 31.5%, courtesy of 17 wins from 54 runners and these 17 winners have helped produce 52.9pts profit, a return of almost 98% over stakes invested.
First Secretary is highly likely to attract market support today and when these Charlton class droppers are priced below 4/1, that strike rate rises to over 45% (10 wins from 22 for 14.5pts profit).
I now want to quickly address the length of today’s race, her three maiden defeats came at inadequate trips of 7f, 8f and 8.5f with today’s contest being 3 furlongs longer than she has previously run. However, her breeding would tend to suggest a middle-distance career awaits her, as she’s a Nayef filly and a half-sister to Listed winner Gallipot who has won over a mile and a half. She’s out of Spinning Queen who was no slouch herself, having landed the Group 1 Sun Chariot Stakes back in her day.
I’m happy with the trainer’s record here and his ability to drop horses down a class to win. The pedigree of today’s selection is good and the final positive sign for me is the booking of James Doyle to steer her home. James is becoming more and more prominent these days and has the ability to be amongst the very best. We’re not likely to be getting a massive payout but the 3/1 BOG available from bet365 looks at least fair, but I recommend that you…