Stat of the Day, 18th July 2013
First Secretary was a non-runner yesterday, so we kept our powder dry and we’ll attempt to complete our hat trick today instead. That quest takes us to Scotland for a 4-runner, Class 5 Maiden. The going is likely to be good to firm for the 6f trip in the…
Trainer Mark Johnston is 6/12 with his runners priced 6/1 or under at Hamilton this year with each of his last four entries winning. Mark actually runs three horses here this afternoon, but the one I’m going with is Ibecke.
Ibecke is a pretty raw two-year old filly, making only her second appearance on a race track. She was quite soundly beaten (by almost 8 lengths) in a 5f maiden at Ayr 10 days ago, finishing back in 6th of the 7 runners. Yet her trainer, Mark Johnston is renowned for getting a markedly improved display from his horses on their second start, as 19 winners from 54 2nd-timers in the last 18 months would suggest. That excellent 35.2% strike has produced profits of 35.8pts at Betfair SP, a return over stakes of some 66%.
Thirty-eight of those fifty-four runners were also priced at 6/1 or under and seventeen (44.74%) of them were victorious, generating profits of 21.9pts , a return of almost 58%.
Other than the bare stats, there’s not a lot else to say about Ibecke, apart from that she cost 60,000 guineas and is related to several winners at various distances.
The overnight withdrawal of the original favourite has reduced this to a 4-runner contest, where the biggest danger is likely to come from Boogangoo and like all 4-runner races, we’re not going to be able to retire on the proceeds of today’s bet, which is a 1pt win bet on Ibecke at 11/4 BOG with Bet365, but as always, I recommend that you…