Stat of the Day, 20th July 2013
Folk Melody was a comfortable winner yesterday at a nice price of 3/1 on debut. She may be one to add to the notebook after that run. That puts us on three wins from four for the week and two of those have come from the Barzalona / bin Suroor partnership.
Back at HQ again today, but this time it’s a Class 2 Handicap over ten furlongs. A competitive contest awaits the six runners in today’s…
They say you shouldn’t try to fix something that isn’t broken, so no apologies for sticking with Mickael Barzalona and Saeed bin Suroor today.
As you probably know Mickael is 27/115 (23.48% SR) for 54.75pts profit (ROI = 47.6%) on this course and 9/33 (27.27%) for 17.5pts (+53% ROI) when the horse is trained by Saeed bin Suroor on this track.
At at odds of 6/1 or under, he’s 20/58 here for 39.35pts with a record of 9/24 and 16.9pts profit for the bin Suroor yard.
I’ve kept those stats as brief as i could, because they’re only an update from yesterday’s piece.
As it’s Saturday, we’ve plenty to choose from. In fact Messrs Barzalona and bin Suroor team up on five occasions here at Newmarket today, but I’m going with Thair.
Thair makes his handicap debut today after competing in much better quality races since shedding his maiden tag a little over a year ago. He seems to have been given a very fair mark for his handicap debut especially, when you consider he has already won a Listed race (Chesham Stakes) as well as making the frame in a Group 3 race at Sandown and also finishing 2nd in a Listed contest here at Newmarket as recently as his penultimate outing here at HQ just two months ago.
I’m happy to disregard his poor show a month ago in the King Edward, where the trip wasn’t to his liking and he really didn’t seem to take to the blinkers.
As an addition to the stats already quoted above, it is worth noting that Saeed bin Suroor has an excellent record with horses making their handicap debut. In fact since 2007, he has run 98 horses priced at 6/1 or below in a handicap for the first time, netting some 36 winners (36.73%) and 56.13pts profit: an ROI of 57.28%. The yard is 4/14 this season.
So, the jockey does well here, as does the trainer. The jockey rides well for the trainer here too and we’ve a handicap debutant from a yard with a great record with horses running in their first handicap contest.
We’ve got a horse that finished 2nd here in a listed contest here at Newmarket (albeit on the other track) over today’s trip off a mark of 108 and runs for us off just 98 today.
If he can bounce back from last month’s disappointment at Ascot, then a 1pt win bet on Thair at 4/1 BOG with Paddy Power looks to be a viable prospect for us, but as always, please…