Stat of the Day, 22nd July 2013

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 22nd July 2013

Cross The Boss was a bit of a damp squib to end an otherwise excellent week here at SotD. He never got involved and was always in the rear, before eventually coming home 6th of 9 at 3/1. A little respite came from the fact we’d taken 4’s earlier, I suppose.

A late one today, as we head South for a twilight Class 4 Fillies handicap. The trip is 1m 3.5f for the five three-year-olds tackling good to firm ground this evening in the …

8.50 Windsor

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John Gosden’s horses are going really well at the moment, with 16 winners from 50 in the last month alone and a 48% place strike rate to boot. He has a good record in recent years here at Windsor too.

His record at Windsor from 2011 reads 11 winners and 10 placers from 43, that’s a win strike rate of 25.6% with 48.8% of them making the frame. Admittedly, the profits aren’t spectacular (2.37pts or 5.51% ROI), but as far as the strike rate goes, that’s impressive enough to warrant further inspection.

We then took a look at the odds his runners were sent off at and they made very interesting (to stattos like me, anyway!) reading indeed. Immediately, I noticed a correlation between the runners’ performances and whether the market liked the look of them.

Nineteen of the forty-three runners (ie 44.2%) were sent off at an SP of 7/2 or lower, yet this 44.25 of all runners provided 10 of the 11 winners to date, some 90.9% in fact.

So, we’ve 10 winners from 19 runners priced at 7/2 or under, a 52.6% strike rate yielding profits of 6.83pts or 35.95% ROI. The returns aren’t astronomical, but to increase your stakes by over one-third at low odds is actually pretty good going: I’d settle for 35% all day long.

All of which leads us to John Gosden’s only runner of the day: Nickels And Dimes.

Nickels And Dimes has run with promise in each of her three starts to date at increasingly longer distances (7f , 8f, 9.5f) and has always looked like she wanted to go further and should be suited by the extra two furlongs here today. Her first two runs were on unsuitable (Heavy followed by good to soft) ground and she seemed more at home on the faster surface at Wolverhampton last time out a fortnight ago. Yet despite the chopping and changing (I presume in an attempt to find her optimum conditions, rather than a manipulation of a handicap mark), she has performed well in all three races, finishing third on debut and second in each of her following tow races.

Despite coming so close to breaking her duck, she looks leniently treated off a mark of 79 today for her handicap debut and this move to handicap company over a longer trip looks right to me.

The racecard for this contest is here.

We’ve got a horse in decent nick for a yard in good form. William Buick takes the ride tonight and he’s going well at present too, having won 14 from 53 in the last two weeks. This ios also his only ride of the day. The yard also has a great record with shorter priced horses here at Windsor and I’m more than happy to stake my 1pt win bet on Nickels And Dimes at 3/1 BOG with Coral. 11/4 seems to be the norm at the moment, so to see what your bookie is offering, simply…

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