Southwell Placepot Picks, 23rd July 2013

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Geegeez Placepot

I’ve got to be honest. That was a plain stupid idea yesterday. True, there was little choice in the meetings, and sometimes I’d rather put up nothing. But there are winners to be had everywhere every day, and I just didn’t find enough of them yesterday. Onwards.

I actually quite like the look of the Southwell jumps card this afternoon, so that’s where we’re headed. The going was officially good, but there’s been a lot of rain in the area, and I’m going to take a punt that it’s softer than that. If I’m right about that, we can also expect a few non-runners to throw spanners in the works.

2.15 – Leg 1: The races are competitive here today, exemplified by this seven runner (two places only) handicap chase. There looks to be every chance of a muddling pace, which means there’s a fair chance of a funny result. As a consequence, I’m casting my net in the hope of hauling in a whopper… if you see what I mean.

Suburban Bay has perhaps the most compelling profile for the race, with form on both good and softer, track and trip form, and a preference for small fields. This is his time of year, as a win in June 2011 and a second to a well handicapped rival in July last year attest; and he’ snow within two pounds of his last winning mark.

Pyjama Game has paid the price for winning twice in succession by charging up the handicap. He’s perhaps got more improvement to come and, in favourable conditions, he could go close at a price. Beckhani might not want it too soft, but his form demands a place on the ticket all the same.

And finally, Green Bank, from the Longsdon yard, could go close. Sunglasses and Sparkling Tara do not inspire confidence with their jumping, and are excluded on that basis.

A – 1 (Suburban Bay), 5 (Beckhani)
B – 2 (Green Bank), 6 (Pyjama Game)

2.45 – Leg 2: Junior Jack looks to have everything in his favour here. He’s won on good and soft, drops in class, wants this trip, and is in form. The fact that he’s likely to sit close to the pace is a bonus to on this pace-favouring course. He’s been well backed, and I can see why. I think he’ll win. It’s dangerous but I’m affording him banker status against moderate/selling opposition.

A – 1 (Junior Jack)

3.15 – Leg  3: Back in ladies only company, As I Am looks very hard to keep out of the frame, especially with the return to twenty furlongs. A second banker in a row. Gulp.

A – 1 (As I Am)

3.45 – Leg 4: As long as it’s not too soft, Cockney Trucker has a chance to bounce back with this drop in class. He’s a horse that places a lot more than he wins, but that’s of no consequence to us as we don’t get bonus points for first! Faultless Feelings is interesting, as the ground won’t trouble him. He’s likely to be stronger this season, and seems to go best fresh. Those are my A’s and I’m taking three on B too, in the shapes of Red Not Blue, Ogee and Ixora. Phew.

A – 3 (Cockney Trucker), 6 (Faultless Feelings)
B – 1 (Red Not Blue), 2 (Ogee), 5 (Ixora)

4.15 – Leg 5: Belle De Fontenay and Dantari are weighted to dead heat here, and there may well be little between them. In what could turn out to be a ‘flake off’, with four dodgy front-runners potentially mixing it on the pace, outsider Rocky Rebel cannot be entirely discounted. He’ll be outpaced early but he has the form to stick on past some of these.

It’s a bugger of a race to predict in truth, and I’ll take four of the five to assure my passage (barring non-runners and a win for Callhimwhatyouwant!)

A – 2 (Belle De Fontenay), 4 (Dantari)
B – 1 (Screaming Brave), 5 (Rocky Rebel)

4.45 – Leg 6: Cut The Cards is an obvious pick. He doesn’t want the ground to go too soft, but aside from that, he looks sure to progress again, and has won on this track and in this grade. Taking an insurance policy on B is a reasonable strategy, as is laying CTC for a place. But beware the possible threat of a non-runner scuppering that tactic by reducing the field to seven and two places for ‘pot purposes (while you’d still have to place lay the first three places).

A ‘B’ selection is the better option, methinks. Hi Tide is starting to run back into a bit of form and he’s ten pounds lower than his last win, which was here. And Kings Destiny was a very high class flat horse who could pulverise these if transferring that level of ability (albeit back in 2010) to this affair.

A – 1 (Cut The Cards)
B – 4 (Kings Destiny), 8 (Hi Tide)

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Just A’s – 2 x 1 x 1 x 2 x 2 x 1 = 8 bets

All picks – 4 x 1 x 1 x 5 x 4 x 3 = 240 bets

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Southwell placepot picks

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