Stat of the Day, 23rd July 2013

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 23rd July 2013

A disappointing run from Nickels And Dimes last night. She never seemed to settle into the race and looked pretty green at times. That said, she tracked the leaders in the early stages, but had to little to offer when push came to shove around 2f out. Jockey William Buick knew pretty much straight away that she was beaten and sensibly eased her down. and just brought her home in last place.

I’ve no issues at all about him bringing her home last, it was clear to everyone that she wasn’t getting on terms and there’s little point in flogging her to maybe gain an extra place. That said, I’ll be looking for better in a 5f handicap North of the border today, as we’ve got one in the…

4.00 Musselburgh

Horses who have previously won over course and distance here at Musselburgh tend to go well on their return to this course. Just blindly backing all previous C&D winners here, priced at 6/1 or under, over the last couple years would have seen you make a 10.8% profit over your stakes, courtesy of a 21.7% strike rate (38 winners from 175).

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That alone is a pretty good starting point for a basic microsystem, but for SotD, I like to be able to tweak things a little more in our favour! The above figures, whilst profitable, don’t take into account any form of course. If we only consider those of 175 from above who returned to Musselburgh on the back of a win (anywhere!), then our sample size becomes 49 runners in that same period and at a maximum of 6/1.

Those 49 runners represent 28% of the 175 C&D winners returning here, but from that 49 we have 14 winners, almost 37% of the winners from above. This gives us a strike rate of 28.6% (up from 21.7%) and profits of 19.83pts. This ROI of 40.5% is almost four times that of our starting stat.

Today’s selected 9-runner race actually has 6 previous C&D winners, but only one comes here on the back of a win last time out: Burning Thread.

Burning Thread was a convincing winner at Bath a week ago as he finally took advantage of a handicap mark that has tumbled over the last year. Last week’s victory was actually his first for just over 25 months, since he landed a £25,000 pot here at Musselburgh in June 2011 off a mark of 94. Hos next outing was in the 2011 running of the Wokingham at Ascot off 102 and despite finishing last of the 25 runners that day, he has been in the grip of the handicapper ever since.

He put in some decent efforts last season on occasions and was third here over course and distance in June 2012 off 91. He only seems to run here once per year, but having finished 1st and 3rd on his last two visits, both of which were his best performances in the last two years before last week’s win, it’s fair to say that he “gets” it here.

A decision was made 2 races ago to put blinkers on him and although he finished 7th of 15 that day at Beverley, he ran well enough to get within 2.5 lengths of the winner and was only just over a length outside the places at 25/1.

The blinkers were reapplied last time at Bath and he pretty much ran away with the race, grabbing the lead near the furlong pole and running on strongly to win by seven lengths going away. He has, of course, been raised 6lb for that effort, but if he runs to the same level today, that penalty won’t be enough to stop him.

He’s got a great draw in stall 9 today and provided he’s up with the pace early on, I can see him staying on strongly at the close once more. He is, admittedly, carrying top weight, but he has run well off much higher than today’s 83, so he should be able to give a little weight away here.

The racecard for this contest is here.

Burning Thread seems to save his best for this track, he has the best recent form in the race and he’s got the best draw of the nine runners. Therefore I’d expect him to quickly follow-up last week’s win. I also think that the market will agree with me and he’ll go off as favourite today. That said, I still think the 5/2 BOG widely available isn’t too bad a price. I’m on with Paddy Power today, but to see what your bookie is offering, simply…

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