Stat of the Day, 25th July 2013
Our poor start to the week continued as National Poet was well beaten. In fairness, he never looked like getting terms an eventually finished way back in 5th place, some 12 lengths off the pace. The only bright spot was that we got 3/1 on a 2/1 favourite.
Across the sea today for a novice chase over 2m 3.5f, as 6 runners line up for the…
Generally speaking, Henry de Bromhead is one of the best at getting his Irish runners to run well off the back of a break. Since the turn of 2011, he has run 125 horses in Ireland on the back of a break of 2 to 6 months, winning 29 of those races.That 23.2% strike rate has yielded level stakes profits of 27.2pts, an ROI of 21.8%.
Those general stats are quite broad and we can narrow them down further: of those 125 runners, 41 of them were reappearing after a break of 2 to 5 months at odds of 6/1 or under ie SotD odds! 15 of those 41 were winners with a further 10 making the frame. The win strike rate is excellent at 36.6% and the 44.24% ROI courtesy of 18.14pts profit isn’t too shabby either.
The record from those 41 runners when narrowed down to the 17 who ran in chase events is 8 winners (47.06%) and 6 placed for a level stakes profit of 9.8pts: an ROI of over 57.5%.
Henry has one such runner this evening: Lord Ben.
Lord Ben was a revelation once sent chasing last season with a record reading 23223U. He obviously wasn’t unduly affected by losing his rider in his last race of the season, as he bounced back to win on his seasonal reappearance back in April at Thurles, where he stayed on well to win despite feeling pressure from the pack.
He comes here suitably rested, having not raced since that Thurles victory, some 112 days ago. He’ll look to grab an early lead and if uncontested at the head of affairs and allowed to steal a bit of a march on his rivals, he’ll be hard to pass or beat, as his rivals at Thurles found to their cost. If he’s wound up and ready for this one, I’d expect to just about get the trip and hold on to the lead.
In short, we’ve got a runner who has only failed to make the frame once in a chase ( he was in the top three when unseating his rider in that one failure) returning to the track after a break of nearly 4 months for a yard adept at getting fresh horses to run well on their return. Lord Ben will get some weight from Whats Happening and there are doubts over the jumping by The Real Article, so that makes the 7/2 BOG offered by Paddy Power for Lord Ben an attractive price to me. But, as always, I strongly suggest that you…