Daily Dabble, 25th July 2013
There were 34 non-runners in the UK yesterday and unfortunately both our selections were amongst that number. This meant we kept our powder dry, but couldn’t immediately follow up Tuesday’s 4/1 win.
But, as racing is a 7-day business, we get to try all over again today starting with the…
Roger Varian has a 27.3% strike rate with handicap debutants priced at 4/1 or under and runs Ducab here today. Ducab is currently a 5/2 shot and will be ridden by Ryan Moore today. Ryan has won two of the four races he has contested for the Varian yard and stands a great chance here on this brother of The Fugue. Our selection has run well in all four races to date: finishing 323 before breaking his duck at Chester almost 4 weeks ago A repeat of that performance will see him there or thereabouts today, especially as the favourite Sadiq reappears with a 6lb penalty..
Just like Roger Varian above, A P O’Brien is a dab hand with his handicap debutants with a record of 12 wins from 31 when they’re priced at 4/1 or under. These winners have produced profits of some 16.5pts to date, an ROI of over 53%. He’s also very adept at placing his 3 yr olds in these open age handicaps where they receive a weight for age allowance, as 8 winners from 25 in the last couple of years and 12.4pts profit will testify. That record is 5/13 with sub-4/1 runners.
The O’Brien operation has won this race for the last two years and in Heirloom, they have a real chance of cracking it again. There’s every chance he’ll go off at odds on, based on his breeding, his progress so far and the relative ease with which he won last time out, but for now we can get 5/4 and whilst those aren’t huge odds, they may well represent some value come this evening.
Back Ducab & Heirloom in a double with Paddy Power paying a shade under 7/1 BOG at 6.875/1