Ascot Placepot Picks, 26th July 2013

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Geegeez Placepot

Geegeez Placepot

Apologies for no placepot picks yesterday. I actually wasn’t feeling 100%, and the racing did less than inspire me. In the circumstances, I thought it better to pass. Anyway, back at the helm today, we’ll take in Day One of Ascot’s three day King George meeting, which kicks off with a ‘stab in the dark’ kind of affair.

2.00 – Leg 1: Eighteen two year old fillies, most of them unraced and, like the police in The Two Ronnies gag where the station loos had all been nicked, we’ve got nothing to go on.

Actually, there is one piece of form from Heartstrings which merits inclusion on the ticket, on the basis that a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. Heartstrings ran second on her debut at Newbury over a furlong shorter than this seven-eighths contest. There have already been two winners from that race, run just three weeks ago, so the form looks at least fair.

Raajis missed the break there that day, and will appreciate this stiffer test as well, so could reverse form possibly.

Ralph Beckett’s Full Day, though, ran over very similar conditions to these at Sandown (7f, good to firm) and was a tenderly handled third there. It may not have been the best race, but she showed a fair bit there and should come on for that.

Of the unraced mob, Sir Michael Stoute’s filly, Psychometry, may be overbet. Sir Michael has just an 11.7% win strike rate with 2yo first starters (compared to 20.6% with all runners), and the place stats are little better: 31.6% place for juvie debutants against 45.9% overall. She can win or place, of course, but she’s unlikely to be a value addition to our permutation.

Instead, I’ll take Johnny G’s Likelihood, and the well backed Dascombe newcomer, Crowley’s Law.

A – 4 (Full Day), 16 (Raajis)
B – 2 (Crowley’s Law), 8 (Likelihood)

2.35 – Leg 2: A seven runner nursery and, while 5/4 jolly Banaadeer has an obvious chance, the price is pretty poor in a race where they’re all open to improvement and may or may not have given their best running to date… Stormy Paradise will have the services of Ryan Moore here, and returns to his winning distance off a fair looking mark, while Mr Matthews has been consistent and may have hit the front too soon last time in a fair bit higher grade.

A – 1 (Stormy Paradise), 2 (Mr Matthews), 5 (Banaadeer)

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3.10 – Leg  3: This two mile handicap is unlikely to have an honest gallop, and that could find out both Highland Castle and Mawaqeet, a pair of hold up hosses that probably need a true run contest to show their best. I like them both, but I can’t them today on that basis alone.

Mysterious Man will probably try to make all and, in such a short field, could do that. He led them into the last quarter of the two and a half mile Ascot Stakes at the Royal meeting, and won’t get hurried as he was there. Strong chance.

Homeric is another that might get tapped for toe off a tactical pace, but I trust Ryan Moore more than most not to get caught out.

The fly in the ointment could be Broxbourne, from the Johnston/Fanning axis. Not normally a front-runner, Fanning is feared whenever he bids for trap-to-line glory, such an excellent judge of pace is he, and on such fit horses.

A – 2 (Homeric), 4 (Mysterious Man)
B – 6 (Broxbourne)

3.45 – Leg 4: This is a good Listed race for fillies over a mile. The favourite, Ultrasonic, has had plenty of chances. She may again need luck in running, but has plenty of talent. She ought to make the frame and is included as a ‘ballsy banker’ and a fairly cheap place lay if things are looking interesting.

Annecdote is probably under-rated, despite ostensibly being poorly in with Auction. And Falls Of Lora and Zibelina represent the stronger two-thirds of the Godolphin triumvirate.

A – 5 (Ultrasonic)

4.20 – Leg 5: Despite just the four runners, a hard race to guess. Vasily is likely to go on, with favourite, Sennockian Star, close at hand. The remaining pair, Viewpoint and Tenure, will try to close. But I reckon the pace-pressing pair are best suited by class, distance and going and, though none has won off such a high handicap mark, they might fight out the finish.

Again, if things are looking ‘fruity’ in terms of the possible payoff, a cheeky win bet on the other two could cover expenses.

A – 1 (Vasily), 3 (Sennockian Star)

4.50 – Leg 6: There is still much work to be done, even though we’re five-sixths of the way through the wager, as this five furlong handicap has seen money for plenty. Gladiatrix and Rowe Park are suited by conditions, and both have multiple verdicts over many of their oppo here in recent weeks and months.

Best Be Careful also ticks a lot of boxes, and should get a nice tow into things. At 18/1 with Stan James, and being nine pounds lower than when winning this last year, she’s of some wagering interest. I’ve had a little each way nibble.

Rylee Mooch drops in class here and could get competitive too.

A – 1 (Gladiatrix), 4 (Rowe Park)
B – 5 (Rylee Mooch), 14 (Best Be Careful)

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Just A’s – 2 x 3 x 2 x 1 x 2 x 2 = 48 bets

All picks – 4 x 3 x 3 x 1 x 2 x 4 = 288 bets

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Ascot placepot picks

Ascot placepot picks

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