Stat of the Day, 27th July 2013

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 27th July 2013

For the second successive occasion, we were left as the bridesmaids, as Moon Melody finished 2nd to Long Wave at 11/2. I had suggested to you that an E/W bet was the more prudent option, so a small profit was secured for those of you following the advice.

Unfortunately, I’d taken the win only plunge and thus, the official records will show a loss on the day for SotD. Hindsight is a wonderful thing, I suppose!

We’re heading back to HQ today for what looks a really interesting Class 2, 6 furlong sprint. Thirteen runners are set to contest the…

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3.55 Newmarket

SotD stalwart Saeed bin Suroor is often the man I turn to when there’s racing on the July course here at Newmarket. He has trained more winners on this track this year than any other trainer (13 winners from 45 attempts), winning 15.5% of all the races here this year and a 28.9% strike rate from own runners alone. (Those figures are courtesy of Mal Boyle’s excellent daily stat pack)

In addition to that near 29% success rate this season, blind backing those 45 horses would have made you 15pts profit, a handy 33.3% return on your money. The yard has three runners here today and it’s the third of the three I’m backing today: Gold Hunter.

Gold Hunter is a very lightly raced 3yr old, who only ran twice last season. On both runs as a two-year old in May 2012, he finished third of twelve runners, once at 5f and once at 6f. He was then away from the track for 14 months before reappearing at Doncaster. Heavily backed that day, he routed his six rivals, putting a good six lengths between him and the eventual runner-up and he was still pulling further clear at the post.

Both the third placed and sixth placed horses have run and won since then, so the form might well be decent from the race.

So, after the promising figures of 331 in maidens, he is now sent to compete in a handicap for the very first time, for a yard with an excellent record with handicap debutants.

In the last 5 years, 37 horses trained by Saeed bin Suroor have won a handicap race at the first time of asking. As the sample size is only 144 runners, this gives an impressive 25.7% strike rate producing 45.4pts profit at level stakes, an ROI of over 31.5%.

99 of those 144 runners have gone in SotD territory, ie priced at 6/1 or under and 38 of those have gone on to win. This increased 38.4% strike rate has yielded a massive 66.4 pts (+67.1% ROI) profit.

Gold Hunter will be ridden by Silvestre de Sousa, a man in form, having won 17 races in the last fortnight alone (28.8% of his 59 rides). He also has a 24.1% strike rate when riding for the bin Suroor yard, courtesy of 54 wins from 224 races with a 34% success (49/144) and profits of 43.6pts (+30.3%) on those priced at 6/1 or under.

Gold Hunter is likely to attract plenty of support today and I fully expect him to go off as favourite. That said, the 7/2 BOG currently available at Coral looks quite appealing for our 1pt win bet today. However, you can choose a different bookie, if you simply…

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