Stat of the Day, 29th July 2013
We backed Dream Walker yesterday at 7/2 and he was eventually sent off as the 6/4 favourite. He didn’t let his backers down either, as he took the lead with a furlong to go and kept on well to score by half a length.
Back down South today for an evening six furlong, Class 4 fillies handicap, where the ground is likely to be good / good to firm for the eleven runners contesting the…
Jeremy Noseda’s horses are going really well at present with 5 winners and 3 placed from 12 runners in the last fortnight. This is no surprise to me, however, as Jeremy does tend to be very successful at this time of year anyway.
In the 2011/13 period Jeremy has a record of 13 wins from 58 in handicap races during the months of July and August. This 22.4% strike rate is responsible for excellent profits of some 50.05pts, an ROI of 86.3% and he’s currently 3/7 in handicaps this month.
Of those 58 runners above, 32 of them ran to an SP of below 6/1 and those 32 runners produced 10 winners (31.25% strike rate).
In addition to performing well at this time of year, it should also be noted that the yard has an excellent record here at Windsor too with 13 winners from 41 (31.7% SR) over the last couple of years producing 11.6pts (+28.3% ROI) and 13 winners from 36 (36.1%) producing 16.63pts (+46.2% ROI) with those runners priced below 8/1.
Jeremy has just one entrant in a handicap race today and that’s here at Windsor in the guise of Maria Lombardi, who makes only her third start today.
She’s clearly far less exposed than any of her rivals and was impressive when scoring at the first attempt just holding off the advances of Cape of Hope who then went on to record back to back successes. Although our selection didn’t fare as well on her second outing in a 7f handicap, the drop back to today’s 6f should help her again.
As a relative newcomer to handicaps, I’m not entirely convinced the handicapper has her measure just yet and she does dangerous today from a lowly weight, where she’ll get 8lbs from the favourite.
The final piece of the jigsaw for me is the booking of Ryan Moore for the first time: Ryan is undoubtedly one of the sport’s top jockeys and without putting any of his rivals down, I think he might just be able to squeeze a little more out of Maria Lombardi today.
As she’s still a fairly unknown sort allied to her disappointing effort last time out (3rd of 4 behind Jontleman and Ceelo), we’re able to get a decent price this morning. To that end, my call is a 1pt win bet on Maria Lombardi at 5/1 BOG with Ladbrokes. Other bookies are, of course, available and for the easiest way to find out what price they’re offering…