Stat of the Day, 30th July 2013

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 30th July 2013

A pretty inauspicious start to our week, I’m afraid. Maria Lombardi was slow away and was playing catch up from the off. She chased hard, but was soon having to be ridden before fading in the closing stages. She eventually finished back in 7th of the 8 runners, almost 10 lengths off the pace. The only bright spot about the selection is that she was sent off at 9/4 after we’d got on at 5/1.

We’re taking a trip to the seaside this afternoon for a one-mile, Class 5 Handicap, where seven runners will contest the…

4.25 Yarmouth

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Luca Cumani is our trainer in focus this morning, due to his tremendous record here at Yarmouth over the last three years. Whenever Luca sends any runners to this Norfolk track, my interest is raised and even more so when the market suggests he’s a good chance. In the last three years 34 of his 52 runners here have been sent off at odds of below 8/1. All 18 priced above this mark have been beaten, yet 12 of the 34 (35.3%) priced under that have gone on to win, bringing in profits of 26.42pts, an ROI of 77.7%.

These impressive figures look even better when applied to handicap races only: 10 winners from 22 (45.5%) for 29.71pts profit, a return over stakes of some 135%.

Mr Cumani actually runs two in handicaps today, both here at Yarmouth and both look to have a decent chance for him. The first of those is Lionheart in the 3.15 race, he’s a keen runner, that despite winning two starts ago at Brighton, has been a little expensive to follow, but odds of 4/1 whilst dropped down in trip to a sprint look quite appetising.

Our selection, however, is Saigon City, a three-year old making only his third appearance to date. He was quite impressive on debut at Salisbury seven weeks ago, where he was 2nd of 14 wearing blinkers and stayed on well over 7f, but was disappointing in his next two outings, finishing 6th on both occasions and beaten by a total of around 38 lengths (once at 7f, once over a mile). It should, however, be noted that blinkers weren’t won on those two runs, but they are applied once again today.

All of which has led to Saigon City being allocated a mark of 70 for his handicap debut and whilst this isn’t generous, it’s certainly very workable for an in-form yard with an excellent record of getting horses to win on their handicap debut.

Luca Cumani has a 24% strike rate this month alone (13/54) and has saddled up 4 winners from 8 in the last week alone. We should also note that in the last three years, he has a 30.1% strike rate with horses making their handicap debut (22/73), producing some 45.33pts profit at an ROI of 62.1%. And although it’s a very small sample size, seven of those runners (and two winners) came here at Yarmouth.

Here’s the racecard for today’s contest.

So we’ve a horse wearing headgear that he has run well in previously running here for an in-form yard, who have a great record at the track and also with handicap debutants. His handicap mark isn’t the best, but isn’t too onerous either and the jockey’s 3lb claim will be very handy today. All things considered, I think that a 1pt win bet on Saigon City at odds of 5/2 BOG (generally available) is a decent prospect today, especially as one of his main rivals, Blackball, is now a non-runner.

The 5/2 is widely available, but I’m on with BetVictor. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

Click here for the latest betting on the 4.25 Yarmouth

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