Stat of the Day, 3rd August 2013
I made a false call yesterday and instead of going to my go-to jockey for Newmarket, Mikael Barzalona, I was tempted with the swathe of stats backing up Investment Expert. As it happens our selection ran very well but never caught a horse who made all to win, leaving us holding the baby in 2nd place at 11/4.
And to compound my disappointment, Mr Barzalona rode a 5/2 winner in the very next race., but we are given a chance of instant redemption by heading back to HQ again today, but we’re stepping up in trip and class from yesterday for today’s contest, as we tackle a Class 3 handicap over 10 furlongs.
The ground is expected to be Good for the nine runners aiming to scoop the near £13,000 top prize in the…
Just like yesterday’s SotD selection here at Newmarket, today’s pick Urban Dance is a C&D winner coming here off the back of a win and as per yesterday, I’d like to quickly remind you that returning C&D winners coming back to Newmarket off the back of a win last time out have a 12/53 win record (22.64%) for profits of 25.08pts (+47.3% ROI) after yesterday’s loss and when we consider just those that fall into our usual SoTD odds range ie 2/1 to 11/2, then we see 9 winners from 25: a 36% strike rate that provides very healthy profits of 22.2pts (+88.8% ROI).
In fact, today is only Urban Dance‘s second start, having broken his maiden at the very first time of asking a little over three weeks ago. He stayed on really well that day to score by a length and a half at 4/1 and looks set to repeat his debut win by winning a handicap at the first time of asking too.
He will be ridden by Mikael Barzalona (of course! :D), whose record here at the Newmarket July course is excellent with 30 wins from just 101 rides on horses priced at 12/1 or under, a strike rate of 29.7% producing 85.5pts (+84.65% ROI) profit. We tend not to go as high as 12/1 for SotD, but if we restrict those stats to a maximum price of 6/1 to fit in with our strategy here, the results are still very impressive: 23 winners from 64 = 35.94% S/R and 43.1pts profit represents a return 67.3% ROI.
Urban Dance was very green on debut, yet still won with plenty in hand and will certainly come on for the experience. As he enters the handicap ranks with just the one run under his belt, I think the handicapper has found it difficult to allocate a fair mark and the 90 allotted to him looks pretty lenient, especially if you look at this breeding. His dam is Melikah (who was also trained by Saeed bin Suroor) and she only ran 4 times: winning a listed race over 10f on debut (Pretty Polly Stakes on her only run at Newmarket), before making the frame in both English and Irish Oaks. She finished 5th of 11 in her final race, a Group 1 event.
He is also related to both Sea The Stars and Galileo and is also a half-brother to Masterstroke, a decent sort with 4 wins from 8 at trips from 8f to 12.5f, including a Listed race and a Group 2 contest, both last summer. If he progresses as expected from his first run, today should really be a stepping stone towards bigger and better things based on his breeding and I strongly fancy him to take this one today. I’ve placed a 1pt win bet at 11/4 BOG with BetVictor, but to see where your bookie stands on this one…