Stat of the Day, 4th August 2013
Two more winners on the July course at Newmarket for Mikael Barzalona on Saturday further improved his already impressive stats at the track. Thankfully, we were on one of them this time, as Urban Dance made light work of his handicap debut to win at 5/2, just a shade shorter than the 11/4 we took.
Urban Dance was held up for a run and finally took the lead inside the final furlong, but such was the speed he showed late on, he eventually won by over 3 lengths and still going away from the pack.
Today’s selection runs in a 10 furlong, Class 5 fillies handicap on good ground, where 10 runners are expected to contest the…
At this time of year, I keep an eye out for Roger Charlton’s runners in handicap races, even more so if the market likes them too.
Quite simply, during July and August, he is one of the most successful trainers on the circuit: since 1st July 2011 he has trained 11 winners from 31 runners in the months of July and/or August. This excellent 35.5% strike rate has given way to 20.26pts profir from all runners, an ROI of 65.4%. Yet, if those figures aren’t quite enough, if his handicappers go off at below 5/1 SP (which I’d expect today’s selection to do!) that strike rate hits 52.94% (9 winners from 17) and the ROI rises to a remarkable 80.9%, courtesy of the 13.75pts acheived by those winners.
Roger runs just one horse in a handicap today, making Serenity Spa our default pick.
Serenity Spa has won once and been placed four times from a total of just seven races to date and she got off the mark two races ago when she appreciated the step up to one mile to win a Class 5 handicap at Windsor five weeks ago. She then stepped up to Class 4 racing over the same course and distance just over a fortnight ago and she finished a very creditable third there. From both those one mile races at Windsor, the main thing I saw was she needs further still and today’s extra two furlongs will (in my opinion, anyway!) suit her down to the ground.
The handicapper has been quite lenient with her of late, dropping her down a pound for that recent 3rd place, which means she just scrapes intro this 0-75 races on the top mark. I wasn’t convinced she needed dropping in OR from her last race, so I’d say she was better than this standard, especially as she’s dropping back a class to Class 5 today.
Her trainer has a great record with horses dropping in class too. Since 2011 he has had 25 winners from 94 horses dropping either one or two classes: that 26.6% strike rate yielding profits of 75.41pts, an ROI of 80.22% with 13 winners from 30 runners being priced under 5/1 for profits of 13.45pts.
So the trainer’s record at this time of year allied to his knack of dropping horses in class to win gives me enough confidence to place my 1pt win bet on Serenity Spa at odds of 4/1 BOG. I’ve reinvested some of Saturday’s winnings from BetVictor, but this price is fairly widely available. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…