Stat of the Day, 6th August 2013
We got no kind of run from Estinaad yesterday at all. She was always towards the rear of the pack and eventually finished back in 8th place at 6/1, but she was well beaten by a good dozen lengths or so. The racing yesterday was as bad as I thought it would be, but every race still has a winner.
With that in mind, we go again this evening at Yorkshire’s garden racecourse, where a Class 4 Handicap for nine runners awaits us. The ground is set to be good for the 2m trip in tonight’s …
Where I’m backing Sir Mark Prescott’s Alwilda at fairly tight odds of 13/8 BOG with Paddy Power. This one is a little shorter than I’d usually put up, but I do think that the price will contract even further, giving our advised price some added value later in the day.
Sir Mark Prescott’s horses are in really good form at the moment with eleven winners from his twenty-one runners sent out over the last fortnight. Alwilda is his only runner today and although this 3 yr old grey filly is likely to go off as a warm favourite this evening, there’s still enough in the price to warrant a bet.
As she’s a 3yr old competing in an open age handicap, she receives a weight for age allowance courtesy of the system in place to allow younger (and therefore perceived as weaker /less experienced) to compete against older horse on a more level playing field. The allowances allocated are on a sliding scale based on the length of a race and with today’s race being a full two miles, the allowance here is quite visible.
In fact Alwilda runs off a mark of 80 today, as does her 5yr old rival Almagest. The allowance is quite evident, as Almagest is 2nd in the weights, having to carry 9st 12lbs (Rocktherunway runs off 82 and is top weight at 10 stones), but the allowance means that our selection is actually bottom weight of the nine runners, having to carry just 8st 11lbs. This means that we’re a good 15lbs well in here and that’s a hell of a difference over two miles.
Sir Mark Prescott is very adept at using this weight for age allowance in longer races, where it has most impact. Since the start of 2011 season, he has run twenty-seven 3 yr olds in these types of races over a mile and a half or longer: with ten of them going on to win for a strike rate of 37% and an ROI of 29% courtesy of profits just shy of 8pts.
And his manipulation (for want of a better word!) of this allowance is even more apparent at today’s two-mile trip where his record reads 11211281, 5 winners and 2 placed from 8 giving a 62.5% strike rate and an ROI of 121% from the 9.7pts profit secured.
I’m on Alwilda at 13/8 with Paddy Power as stated above, but Coral also offer the same price at present, with 6/4 already being more prevalent elsewhere, so I suggest that you…